WATCH FOR ANNOUNCEMENTS ABOUT : ANY SCHEDULE CHANGES (UPDATED) PAPER INFORMATION GENERIC FEEDBACK ETC.

MY OFFICE: 3204 Stone Building  850-644-8778  OFFICE HOURS: Any exceptions to be announced 1:00-2:00 P.M. Tuesday  2:00-3:15 Wednesday & by appointment slosh@fsu.edu

FSU OLD Stone Building  INSTRUCTOR: Professor Susan Carol Losh G154  Stone Building Tuesdays 2:00-4:15 PM

PLEASE INFORM ME IMMEDIATELY IF YOU REQUIRE ANY ASSISTANCE WITH DISABILITIES!
 
 

The Multivariate Analysis of Categorical Data addresses models with categorical dependent variables. Analyses with these variables do not lend themselves to some of the more traditional statistics used in education, the behavioral or the social sciences. Part of our course centers around causality and testing causal models. Along the way we will encounter maximum likelihood estimators, Likelihood-Ratio Chi-Squares, and diverse fit estimates. This material requires familiarity with one course past the basic introductory statistics class (e.g., multiple regression, ANOVA, the General Linear Model or structural equation models).

By the end of the semester, you should be able to set up, test and interpret:

   --loglinear and logit models
   --logistic regression equations for both binary and multinomial dependent variables

• You should be more familar with other methods for incorporating non-numeric dependent variables such as probit analysis or hazard models.
• Your ability to read materials in this area should be considerably enhanced.

Simply reading materials does not confer peace of mind, let alone a healthy respect for everything that can go wrong. Until you try basic applications, these techniques are difficult to understand or evaluate. Once you work an exercise, the materials become much clearer. You will complete four short exercises designed to familiarize you with terminology, basic concepts, and computer techniques. Finally, you will analyze data and write a short paper, as well as give a short presentaton based on your paper. A later handout will set the fundamental parameters for the analysis paper. Several datasets are available to you or you may use your own data.

It is insufficient to simply report results, results are interpreted. Did your original substantive hypotheses receive any support? Were they unequivocally rejected? Did they make sense in your causal system? We will address causal issues several times throughout the semester.
 
 

ELEMENTARY CAUSAL EXAMPLES 101: Did you know?  Looking across months of the year, ice cream consumption and criminal assaults rise and fall together.  American students with lower high school grades tend to smoke more cigarettes. The storks return to nest in Sweden just as the number of births rise during the year. Does eating ice cream cause criminals to assault others? Does smoking cigarettes literally stupify you? Do storks really bring babies? Stay tuned. Statistics never, ever "prove causality." However, certain patterns of results will be more consistent with hypotheses than others. And, you will discover, certain numeric patterns of results can be the same for "real" or substantive findings--and for fake or "spurious" findings.

MAIN TEXT: Alan Agresti, An Introduction to Categorical Data Analysis. SECOND EDITION! (Wiley, 2007)

I will introduce several ways to save some money on the Agresti book. Please wait until the first day of class.
 

NOTE: A more expanded version of Agresti, which is more mathematical, can be found at: Alan Agresti, Categorical Data Analysis. THIRD edition, Wiley, 2012 if you want to continue the study of these techniques.

Other readings from: Nigel Gilbert, Analyzing Tabular Data: Loglinear and Logistic Models (1993; ISBN = 1857280903) and

Online Course Guides

The Agresti book is at Bill's and the FSU Bookstore. Used copies ARE available.
It is quite possible that you can find used copies online at Amazon and other sites for a good deal.
I will make copies of the Gilbert chapters for you. Sometimes you can find VERY cheap copies of Gilbert at online sites, such as Amazon.

ALL MY COURSE LECTURES will be placed on the Internet and linked in with each course topic.

Course guides will be keyed to the readings. See the top of each Guide as it is posted.
The lecture urls have the general form of:

Please type in course urls EXACTLY. There is no "www" in these urls.

Some material in the guides will be covered during class. However, we will also use class time for instruction related to each exercise, demonstrations, presentations and feedback.

Here is information about  assignments, due dates, and course weights.

There will be four short equally weighted exercises.  While each exercise will focus on the immediately prior units, please be advised that this material is cumulative in nature.

Exercises have several purposes:

To familiarize you with terminology, basic operations, and associated computer programs.

To help practice your basic analysis and results interpretation skills. For example, logistic regression coefficients are often used and equally often misinterpreted.

To alert you to common problems that occur with different kinds of analyses and ways to solve these problems.

All four exercises put together will count a total of 40% toward your final grade.

Details on each assignment are posted to our course WEB site prior to the due date.

As exercises and exercise feedback sites are created and posted, watch the space at the top of the Guides for information and links.

An analytic paper will count 40% toward your final grade.

A presentation based on your analytic paper will count 20% toward your final grade.

In the paper, you will analyze data using course material and interpret your findings. The general format of the paper will resemble a journal article.

You may use your own data, data from your major professor, or one of the many data sets I have available. There are many databases online.

I use plus and minus grading, throughout and for final grades.

If I think you are having trouble with the material, I will alert you immediately. I expect you will seek help as quickly as possible. If you receive such an alert, please take it very seriously.
 

I use plus and minus grading for final grades.

Our course is WEB assisted through Blackboard at FSU. You MUST be registered for edf6937-05 to access our Blackboard site. To access our course through Blackboard, here is what to do. Go online to:

(You will be forwarded to the new, more complicated url. . The above works and is easy to remember.) Enter your FSU username (USERNAME ONLY!) and password to log in. For example, I would enter "slosh" ONLY and omit the "@fsu.edu" part. Then click on:

If you DON'T have an FSU account, you need to get one NOW. Go to the Computing Services website and follow the links to register online for your FSU account and email. (Of course you can set up your FSU email account to forward to the email account of your choice.)

You need an FSU account to log into BlackBoard.

Our course can also be accessed directly through the Internet and FSU's mailer system. Go to:

(That's THIS WEB address.)

You can link to nearly all the course sites from this central location.
 
 

I will use WEB-assist for several course features; this is sometimes called a "flipped course":

• All lectures will be available online and linked with course topics. Objectives will be posted for each section of the course as the semester progresses.

• Exercises will be posted to our course site. Generic feedback on assignments will be posted. Please read this feedback before you ask questions about your personal written work because these sites may answer many of your questions.

• I DON'T ANSWER QUESTIONS ABOUT PERSONAL EXERCISES OR THE PAPER DURING CLASS, including our (one) class break. PLEASE DO NOT EVEN ASK. I won't have enough time to thoroughly reread your materials and ask you questions about it. This is unfair to you, to me, or to your classmates. However, I will gladly make an appointment to discuss your exercise or paper with you or we can go over it after class.

• Announcements on the main Blackboard page will alert you to any changes in the nature of exercises or to the schedule for the syllabus, course deadlines, or class meetings. Also watch the top of the sites for such announcements. We can use Blackboard to send emails too.

There may be some variations from this syllabus. Please check back weekly and watch Blackboard for any announcements.

DATES	TOPICS TO BE COVERED	ISSUES AND OBJECTIVES
January 10-17	Introduction: Issues in Modeling Causal issues in experimental, nonexperimental and observational data and their implications for models	Navigating our course web sites What are the fundamental analytic problems? What (to anticipate) are some solutions? Basic casual issues Review of types of data
January 17-24	Review General Linear Model; issues of basic terminology  Introduce terminology  (Odds-Ratios; MLEs; iteration; Chi-square as goodness of fit);  The basic two-way (2 X 2) cross-tabulation table recast	What are important aspects of the GLM? What are the building blocks and terms of multivariate analyses of non-numeric data?
January 24-31	Basic loglinear models.  A probabilistic model for table cell counts. Poisson and multinomial distributions. Begin with two way table, extend initially to three way (2 dichotomous, 1 not, then to multinomial). Frequency equations; transformed to log-linear equations.	What do loglinear models "look like"? What is a general cell frequency model? Show me an example!
February 7	EXERCISE 1 DUE	Basic terminology exercise
February 7-14	N-way tables Model construction and model testing in the loglinear model	Extending the model to "n dimensional" cross-tabulation tables How do I test my loglinear model? Which parameters can I drop?
February 14-21	Introduction to programs
March 7	EXERCISE 2 DUE	Program 1 and writing a loglinear equation
February 28-March 7	The logit model.  Transformation from the loglinear to the logit model.  Transform equations to logit model.	What is a logit model? What are the advantages to a logit model? What's the relationship between a loglinear model and a logit model?
March 13-17	No class--Spring Break
March 21	Issues in testing logit models and demonstrations.
March 28	EXERCISE 3 DUE	Nonhierarchical Loglinear models
March 28 - April 4	The special case of logistic regression. Dichotomous and polytotomous dependent variables.  Poisson, binomial and multinomial regression More programs: Multinomial logistic regression	What's the relationship between the GCF and logit models and logistic regression? How do I handle dependent variables with more than two categories?
April 11	EXERCISE 4 DUE	Loglinear to logit transformation Running a logit model program
April 18	First draft analytic paper (allows me to get it back to you in time to do revisions) Presentations	Please submit paper draft through turnitin onBlackboard PRESENTATION INFO
April 4-25	Various extensions and special cases:  Model Fitting Ordinal response variables versus nominal models;  Quasi independence;  Structural versus sampling zeros Presentations	When Chi-square just isn't enough Many many measures of fit Are there advantages to an ordinal dependent variable? What about cells with no cases? What are some other extensions? A variety of odds and ends and review
May 3 by noon	Analytic paper due FINAL DUE DATE!! submit through turnitin	Paper Guide

A LECTURE (AND ASSOCIATED MATERIALS) WILL BE LINKED WITH EACH TOPIC AS THE SEMESTER PROGRESSES.
 
 

READINGS AND ASSIGNMENTS

This page was created with Netscape Composer.
There may be some minor changes as the semester progresses.
Your patience is appreciated.
Susan Carol Losh
December 31 2016