# Forecasts & Climatology

Florida hurricanes: Day of the week

Local hurricane risk: R code for generating return periods from historical data.

Historical hurricane extrapolation track model

The model is based on the idea that given a large sample of possible storms weighted by similarity to characteristics of the best forecast (e.g., forward motion, intensity, etc), use the weighted ensemble to extrapolate beyond the forecast horizon given by the best prediction (National Hurricane Center).

Frances 04 , Ivan 04, Emily 05, Ernesto 06, TD06 06

Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean tropical cyclone climatology

Estimated
probability of observing at least one tropical cyclone of at least
**tropical storm intensity (34 kt)** per degree latitude per degree
longitude (Annual, Monthly,
Weekly).

Estimated
probability of observing at least one tropical cyclone of at least
**hurricane intensity (64 kt)** per degree latitude per degree
longitude (Annual).

Estimated
probability of observing at least one tropical cyclone of at least
**major hurricane intensity (100 kt)** per degree latitude per
degree longitude (Annual).

Issued July 2001. Forecast Range = 30 years (Count in parentheses is total for 2001-2012).

Expected number of U.S. hurricanes = 50 (21).

Expected number of U.S. major hurricanes = 18 (7).

Expected number of Florida hurricanes = 20 (7).