Current Projects

NSFGEO-NERC: Assessing the influence of sub-annual variability in the AMOC on the Gulf Stream and the atmosphere

The role of the Gulf Stream in modulating the weather and climate of the Northern Hemisphere has received considerable recent support. Observations show that significant Gulf Stream (GS) variability occurs on monthly timescales. Recently, a high degree of variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has also been observed on these monthly timescales, providing a potential connection between the AMOC and the mid-latitude atmosphere via the GS. Modelling studies, however, have yet to agree on the exact relationship between the AMOC and the GS. Whilst many causes exist for these discrepancies, an overarching explanation appears to involve (the lack of) eddy-scale resolution. This project will systematically assess the nature of the AMOC-GS-atmosphere relationship on subannual to interannual timescales in an ensemble of eddy-resolving North Atlantic model simulations. FSU PIs: Rhys Parfitt and William Dewar. More information can be found here.

This project is kindly sponsored through the NSF Physical Oceanography program as part of a Lead Agency Opportunity with NERC UK, and will be undertaken in collaboration with Arnaud Czaja at Imperial College London.

NSF: Novel Ensemble Based North Atlantic Diagnostics

Coupled climate models require dynamically consistent and accurate ocean modules. Climate projections are expected to require some degree of parameterization for the eddy component of ocean flows well into the future. The objective of this project is to contribute to ocean eddy parameterization by means of novel examinations of ensembles of ocean simulations. Ensemble approaches are common in climate modeling but have not been employed for studying the ocean dynamics. A North Atlantic ensemble with a particular focus on the Gulf Stream will be analyzed and contrasted with the interior of the North Atlantic. The Gulf Stream exhibits exceptional dynamical features and is expected to highlight the benefits of novel approaches provided by ensembles. The North Atlantic interior eddy field is expected to take on very different, detectable characteristics. The outcomes of this project are expected to improve understanding of eddy parameterizations in both ocean and climate models. FSU PIs: William Dewar, Nicolas Wienders, and Rhys Parfitt. More information can be found here.

This project is kindly sponsored through the NSF Physical Oceanography program, and will be undertaken in collaboration with Andrew Poje at City University of New York.

NOAA: Analysis of the dynamical links between SST, boundary layer convergence, atmospheric fronts, and precipitation in the North Atlantic storm track

This proposal focuses on identifying and understanding key processes that influence model biases and systematic errors in the simulation of precipitation at the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale. Climate models of standard resolution (e.g. approximately 1°) do not properly resolve phenomena such as atmospheric fronts or ocean mesoscale features. Much of the precipitation in mid-latitudes is associated with atmospheric fronts, particularly in the extratropical storm tracks. In addition, ocean mesoscale features such as western boundary currents and eddies can induce convergence of the near-surface winds, which is an important factor governing precipitation. Thus, the standard resolution models may be missing some key aspects of processes that drive precipitation, with detrimental impacts on longer range predictability and S2S associated with the evolution of the ocean mesoscale and atmospheric fronts. This project will aim to better understand linkages between sea surface temperature, surface convergence and precipitation. FSU PI: Rhys Parfitt.

This project is kindly sponsored through the NOAA Climate Variability and Predictability program, and will be undertaken in collaboration with Justin Small at NCAR, Niklas Schneider at University of Hawai'i at Manoa, and Lucas Cardoso Laurindo at University of Miami.

NASA: The influence of salinity on stratification over the Northeast U.S. shelf and slope and its implications for weather systems and marine heat waves

The Northeast U.S. continental shelf is a highly productive and economically important region that has experienced robust changes in upper-ocean properties in recent decades. Warming rates exceed the global and North Atlantic average and in particular several episodes of anomalously warm temperatures, so called marine heatwaves, have had devastating impacts on regional fisheries over the past decade. Some regions, e.g. the Gulf of Maine, have been in marine heatwave state ~50% of the time since 2010. Here, we focus on ocean salinity’s role as a contributor to density stratification on the Northeast U.S. shelf and slope using state-of-the-art salinity observations available by new remote sensing capabilities that provide comprehensive spatial coverage across-shelf. How these changes in stratification, along with atmospheric forcing, impact preconditioning of the Northeast U.S shelf and slope towards the development and demise of marine heatwaves is explored. FSU PI: Rhys Parfitt.

This project is kindly sponsored by NASA (Earth Science Division), and will be undertaken in collaboration with Caroline Ummenhofer, Svenja Ryan, Glen Gawarkiewicz, and Lukas Lobert at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.