Department of Geography
Florida State University
Tallahassee, FL 32306-2190
phone: (850) 644-8374, fax: (850) 644-5913
EDUCATION
Ph.D. University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee 1988
M.S. University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee 1984
B.S. University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee 1981
EXPERIENCE
Associate Professor, Department of Geography, FSU, 1998present
Associate Professor, Department of Meteorology, FSU,
19951998
Assistant Professor, Department of Meteorology, FSU,
19901995
Lecturer, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, 19891990
Research Scientist, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee,
1989
American Meteorological Society
European Geophysical Society
AWARDS
Faculty Sabbatical (full salary), 1997, FSU
Teaching Incentive Program Award, 1996, FSU
Outstanding Student Teacher Award, 1987, UWM
PUBLICATIONS
Refereed Journal
Articles
1. Jagger, T., J. B. Elsner, & X. Niu, 2001:
A dynamic probability model of hurricane winds in coastal counties of the
United States. J. Appl. Meteor. in press.
2. Carter, M. M., J. B. Elsner, & S. P.
Bennett, 2001: A quantitative precipitation forecast experiment for Puerto
Rico. Journal of Hydrology, in press.
3. Murnane, R. J., J. B. Elsner, &
coauthors, 2000: Model estimates hurricane wind speed probabilities. EOS, 81,
433, 438.
4. Elsner J. B., K.-b. Liu, & B. Kocher,
2000: Spatial variations in major U. S. hurricane activity: Statistics and a
physical mechanism. Journal of Climate, 13, 22932305.
5. Elsner J. B., T. Jagger & X. Niu, 2000:
Changes in the rates of North Atlantic major hurricane activity during the 20th
century. Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 17431746.
6. Elsner J. B., & B. Kocher, 2000: Global
tropical cyclone activity: A link to the North Atlantic oscillation.
Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 129132.
7. Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1999: The
autocorrelation function and human influences on climate. Science, 285, 495.
8. Elsner J. B., A. B. Kara, & M. A. Owens,
1999: Fluctuations in North Atlantic hurricane frequency. Journal of Climate,
12, 427437.
9. Tsonis, A. A., P. J. Roebber, and J. B.
Elsner, 1999: Long-range correlations in the extratropical atmospheric
circulation: Origin and implications. Journal of Climate, 12, 15341541.
10. Kara, A. B., & J. B. Elsner, 1998:
Characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer for coastal and inland
locations around the Gulf of Mexico, Atmosfera, 12, 113.
11. Elsner J. B., X. Niu, & A. A. Tsonis,
1998: Multi-year prediction model of North Atlantic hurricane activity,
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 68, 4351.
12. Kara, A. B., P. H. Ruscher, & J. B.
Elsner, 1998: Numerical models of boundary layer processes over and around the
Gulf of Mexico during a return-flow event, Weather and Forecasting, 13,
921933.
13. Bove, M. C., J. B. Elsner, C. W. Landsea, X.
Niu, & J. J. OBrien, 1998: Effect of El Nio on U. S. landfalling
hurricanes, revisited, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79,
24772482.
14. Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1998:
Comments on The southern oscillation as an example of a simple, ordered
subsystem of a complex chaotic system"Reply, Journal of Climate, 11,
2460.
15. Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1998:
Comments on The southern oscillation as an example of a simple, ordered
subsystem of a complex chaotic system," Journal of Climate, 11, 24532454,
2460.
16. Tsonis, A. A., P. J. Roebber, & J. B.
Elsner, 1998: A characteristic time scale in the global temperature record,
Geophysical Research Letters, 25, 28212823.
17. Kimberlain, T. B., & J. B. Elsner, 1998:
The 1995 and 1996 North Atlantic hurricane seasons: A return of the
tropical-only hurricane, Journal of Climate, 11, 20622069.
18. Kara, A. B., J. B. Elsner, & P. H.
Ruscher, 1998: Physical mechanism for the Tallahassee, Florida minimum
temperature anomaly, Journal of Applied Meteorology, 37, 101113.
19. Tsonis, A. A., P. J. Roebber, & J. B.
Elsner, 1997: Do climate simulations from sea surface temperature forced models
represent actual dynamics? Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 4, 93100.
20. Carter, M. M., & J. B. Elsner, 1997: A
statistical method for forecasting rainfall over Puerto Rico, Weather and
Forecasting, 12, 515525.
21. Lehmiller, G. S., T. B. Kimberlain, & J.
B. Elsner, 1997: Seasonal prediction models for North Atlantic basin hurricane
location, Monthly Weather Review, 125, 17801791.
22. Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1997:
Global temperature as a regulator of climate predictability, Physica D, 108,
191196.
23. Tsonis, A. A., J. B. Elsner, & P. A.
Tsonis, 1997: Is DNA a language? Journal of Theoretical Biology, 184, 2529.
24. Carter, M. M., and J. B. Elsner, 1996:
Convective rainfall regions of Puerto Rico, International Journal of
Climatology, 16, 10331043.
25. Elsner J. B., G. S. Lehmiller, & T. B.
Kimberlain, 1996: Objective classification of Atlantic basin hurricanes,
Journal of Climate, 9, 28802889.
26. Elsner J. B., H. E. Fuelberg, R. L. Deal
III, J. A. Orrock, G. S. Lehmiller, & P. H. Ruscher, 1996: Tallahassee,
Florida, minimum temperature anomaly: Description and speculations, Bulletin of
the American Meteorological Society, 77, 721728.
27. Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1996:
Mapping the channels of communication between the tropics and midlatitudes,
Physica D, 92, 237244.
28. Tsonis, A. A., P. Kumar, J. B. Elsner, &
P. A. Tsonis, 1996: Wavelet analysis of DNA sequences, Physical Review E, 53,
18281834.
29. Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1995:
Testing for scaling in natural forms and observables, Journal of Statistical
Physics, 81, 869880.
30. Triantafyllou, J. B. Elsner, A. Lascaratos,
C. Koutitas, & A. A. Tsonis, 1995: Structure and properties of the
attractor of a marine dynamical system, Mathematical and Computational
Modelling, 21, 7386.
31. Hess, J. C., J. B. Elsner, & N. E.
LaSeur, 1995: Improving seasonal hurricane predictions for the Atlantic basin,
Weather and Forecasting, 10, 425432.
32. Elsner J. B., & C. P. Schmertmann, 1994:
Assessing forecast skill through cross validation, Weather and Forecasting, 9,
619624.
33. Elsner J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1994:
Low-frequency oscillation, Nature, 372, 507508.
34. Tsonis, A. A., G. N. Triantafyllou, J. B.
Elsner, J. J. Holdzkom II, & A. D. Kirwan Jr., 1994: An investigation on
the ability of nonlinear methods to infer dynamics from observations, Bulletin
of the American Meteorological Society, 75, 16231633.
35. Elsner J. B., & J. C. Honorι, 1994:
Ignoring chaos, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 75, 18461847.
36. Hess, J. C., & J. B. Elsner, 1994:
Extended-range hindcasts of tropical-origin Atlantic hurricane activity,
Geophysical Research Letters, 21, 365368.
37. Hess, J. C., & J. B. Elsner, 1994:
Historical developments leading to forecasts of annual Atlantic
tropical-cyclone activity, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 75,
16111621.
38. Tsonis, A. A., G. Triantafyllou, & J. B.
Elsner, 1994: Searching for determinism in observed data: A review of the
issues involved, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 1, 1225.
39. Elsner J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1994:
Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical Northern
Hemisphere, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 1, 4144.
40. Tsonis, A. A., J. B. Elsner, & P. A.
Tsonis, 1993: On the existence of scaling in DNA sequences, Biochemical and
Biophysical Research Communications, 97, 12881295.
41. Elsner J. B., & C. P. Schmertmann, 1993:
Improving extended-range seasonal predictions of intense Atlantic hurricane
activity, Weather and Forecasting, 8, 345351.
42. Tsonis, A. A., J. B. Elsner, & K. P.
Georgakakos, 1993: Estimating the dimensions of weather and climate attractors:
Important issues about the procedure and interpretation, Journal of Atmospheric
Sciences, 50, 25492555.
43. Elsner J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1993:
Nonlinear dynamics established in the ENSO, Geophysical Research Letters, 20,
213216.
44. Elsner J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1993:
Complexity and predictability of hourly precipitation, Journal of Atmospheric
Sciences, 50, 400405.
45. Elsner J. B., 1992: A description of
low-frequency atmospheric oscillations over the Northern Hemisphere using
singular spectrum analysis, Geophysical Research Letters, 19, 17751778.
46. Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1992:
Nonlinear prediction as a way of distinguishing chaos from random fractal
sequences, Nature, 358, 217220.
47. Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1992:
Temperature oscillations, Nature, 356, 751.
48. Elsner J. B., 1992: Predicting time series
using a neural network as a method for distinguishing chaos from noise, Journal
of Physics A, 25, 843850.
49. Elsner J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1992: A
note on the spatial structure of the covariability of Northern Hemispheric
monthly temperature records in the last 110 years, Pure and Applied Geophysics,
137, 133146.
50. Elsner J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1992:
Nonlinear prediction, chaos and noise, Bulletin of the American Meteorological
Society, 73, 4960.
51. Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1991:
Fractal properties of rain in the time domain and Taylors hypothesis,
Meteorology and Hydrology, 2, 98103.
52. Elsner J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1991: Do
bidecadal oscillations exist in the global temperature record? Nature, 353,
551553.
53. Tsonis, A. A., J. B. Elsner, & P. A.
Tsonis, 1991: Periodicity in DNA coding sequences: Implications in gene
evolution, Journal of Theoretical Biology, 151, 323331.
54. Elsner J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1991:
Comparisons of observed Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature records,
Geophysical Research Letters, 18, 12291232.
55. Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1991:
Multiple fractal dimensions in snow, Atmospheric Research, 26, 15.
56. Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1990:
Multiple attractors, fractal basins and longterm climate dynamics, Atmospheric
Physics, 63, 171176.
57. Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1990:
Comments on Dimension analysis of climatic data," Journal of Climate, 3,
15021505.
58. Elsner J. B., W. H. Drag, & J. K. Last,
1989: Synoptic weather patterns associated with the Milwaukee, Wisconsin flash
flood of 6 August 1986, Weather and Forecasting, 4, 537554.
59. Elsner J. B., J. R. Mecikalski, & A. A.
Tsonis, 1989: A shore-parallel cloud band over Lake Michigan, Monthly Weather
Review, 117, 28222823.
60. Tsonis, A.
A., & J. B. Elsner, 1989: Testing the global warming hypothesis,
Geophysical Research Letters, 16, 795797.
61. Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1989:
Chaos, strange attractors and the weather, Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society, 70, 1623.
62. Tsonis, A. A., J. B. Elsner, & P. A.
Tsonis, 1989: On the dynamics of a forced reaction-diffusion model for
biological pattern formation, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
USA, 86, 49384942.
63. Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1988: The
weather attractor over very short-time scales, Nature, 333, 545547.
64. Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1987:
Fractal characterization and simulation of lightning, Atmospheric Physics, 60,
187192.
65. Sikdar, D. N., & J. B. Elsner, 1987:
Large-scale circulation departures related to wet episodes in Northeast Brazil,
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 113, 567580.
66. Sikdar, D. N., & J. B. Elsner, 1987:
Intra-seasonal variability of rainfall and atmospheric energetics over
Northeast Brazil during the rainy season of 1979, Tellus A, 39, 4960.
Refereed Books
Hurricanes of the North Atlantic: Climate and
Society, J. B. Elsner and A. B. Kara, Oxford University Press, 1999. 496 pp.
Singular Spectrum Analysis: A New Tool in Time
Series Analysis, J. B. Elsner and A. A. Tsonis, Plenum, 1996, 164 pp.
Book Chapters
Elsner, J. B., & B. H. Bossak, 2001: Changes in
hurricane landfall probabilities in response to variations in climate", in
Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Future, R. Murnane & K.-b. Liu,
Eds., Columbia University Press.
Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1992: What do
data analyses tell us about the variability of global temperature?"
Chapter 3, Section I, in A Global Warming Forum: Scientific, Economic, and
Legal Overview, R. A. Geyer, Editor, CRC Press.
Elsner, J. B., 1991: Predicting time series using a
neural network as a method of distinguishing chaos from noise.", in
Artificial Neural Networks: Proceedings of the 1991 International Conference on
Artificial Neural Networks (ICANN91), T. Kohonen, K. Mδkisara, O. Simula,
& J. Kangas, Eds., North Holland.
Published Book Reviews
Chaos and Determinism: Turbulence as a Paradigm for
Complex Systems Converging Toward Final States, by A. Favre,
H. Guitton, J. Guitton, A. Lichnerowicz, & E. Wolff,
translated by B. E. Schwarzbach, Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society, 76, 18241825 (1995).
The Essence of Chaos, by E. N. Lorenz,
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 75, 862864 (1994).
Non-Linear Variability in Geophysics: Scaling and
Fractals, edited by S. Lovejoy & D. Schertzer, Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society, 73, 645646 (1992).
From Cardinals to Chaos: Reflections on the Life and
Legacy of S. Ulam, edited by N. G. Cooper, Bulletin of the
American Meteorological Society, 72, 15541556 (1991).
REPORTS, TECHNICAL
MEMOS, ETC
Gordon, R. T., A. Boissonnade, & J. B. Elsner,
2000: A track classification of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. Report to
Risk Management Solutions of Menlo Park, CA. 28pp.
Elsner J. B., & A. B. Kara, 1997: Hurricane
return periods along the Gulf Coast and Florida, NOAA Tech. Memo., NWS SR-192.
Elsner J. B., 1996: A probabilistic model of the
number of intense Atlantic basin hurricanes for the 1996 season. NOAA Tech.
Attach., NWS SR/SSD96-12.
Drag, W. H., J. B. Elsner, & J. K. Last, 1987:
Pattern recognition and the Milwaukee flash flood of August 6, 1986, NOAA Tech.
Attach., NWS CR87-15.
Elsner, J. B., P. J. Elsner, & J. K. Last, 1986:
Milwaukees bulletin board system, American Weather Observer, 3, 10.
SESSION CONVENOR
European Geophysical Society XXI General Assembly,
The Hague, Netherlands, 610 May, 1996, Quantifying Predictability, with M. K.
Davey, M. Allen, and T. Opsteegh.
INVITED LECTURES
AAAS meeting, Washington, DC, February, 2000
SUS hurricane meeting, Miami, FL, November, 1999
Re-insurance industry meeting, Hamilton, Bermuda,
May, 1999
Caribbean Meteorological Institute, Barbados, April,
1999
National Hurricane Conference, Orlando, FL, April,
1999
Global Hydrology and Climate Center, Huntsville, AL,
March, 1999
National Hurricane Conference, Norfolk, VA, April,
1998
Aon Reinsurance Meeting, Chicago, IL, June, 1997
Re-insurance industry meeting, Hamilton, Bermuda,
December, 1996
Seminar on Catastrophe Issues, Keynote address,
St. Petersburg, April, 1996
Bermuda Biological Station for Research, Bermuda,
September, 1995
NWSFO, Anchorage, June, 1993
European Geophysical Society XVIII General Assembly,
Wiesbaden, May, 1993
Clark-Atlanta University, Atlanta, October, 1991
Bulgarian Institute of Nuclear Physics, Sofia, June,
1991
Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, June, 1991
AMS-West Central Illinois Chapter, Peoria, March
1990
University of Dayton, Dayton, March, 1990
Milwaukee Area Technical College, Milwaukee, April,
1988
FORMAL COURSES TAUGHT
Graduate/Undergraduate level: Synoptic Meteorology
Lecture/Laboratory, Mesometeorology Laboratory, Computational Methods in
Atmospheric Science, Statistical Weather and Climate Prediction, Data Analysis
and Statistics in Meteorology, Atmospheric Thermodynamics, Hurricanes and
Society, Quantitative Geography, Advanced Quantitative Geography
Undergraduate level: Survey of Meteorology, Tornadic
Storms, General Meteorology, Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology, Current
Weather Discussion, Physical Geography