Post
Draft Analysis |
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Andrew's Draft Analysis |
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On
paper, it looks like John, Brian T, and Drum have comparable collections of
teams that should finish near the top this year. John, who finished in
second place last year, has an average seed of 8 (tied with Brian T for the
best), with his top 4 coming in at 4.25 (second to Drum). John's
average seed of 6.00 for his top 6 teams is second to Brian T. Drum's
top two picks of Duke (1) and Baylor (3) has the best top 2 seed average. |
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However,
my expert analysis goes beyond just the paper rankings. I carefully
analyze matchups, position strengths, team cohesiveness and leadership,
physicality, streaks, facilities, travel, coaching, and looseness of the
cheerleaders to arrive at my rankings. |
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This
year, it looks like the collection of teams drafted by Andrew will rule, and
it won't be close. Here is my predicted order of finish: |
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12
points: Andrew. This includes 6 teams
winning in the first round, and a run to the final four by both Wisconsin and
Louisville. West Virginia will win 2, and may upset Kentucky in the
third round (OK, that is a stretch). I was hoping that BYU would beat
Ole Miss because I liked them better against Xavier, but the Rebs could still
do it. |
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10
points: Piet. It is hard to pick against
Kentucky, and we may have to go ahead and chalk down 6 wins for them.
The rest of Piet's lineup sucks, but he will manage to find another 4 wins
somewhere. |
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9 points: Brian H.
Brian usually finds a way to win this
damn contest, so I feel obligated to at least rank him in the top 3. He
drafted 3 Big Ten teams (a conference with 14 teams), and 2 Big Twelve (a
conference with 10 teams), and a Big 12 wannabe, SMU. Those teams are
all tested, so he could make a nice run again this year. |
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7:
Drum. Will Duke choke or make a run for the
championship? That is the question and the risk you take by selecting
the Blue Devils as the 3rd overall pick. If they run to the
championship game, Drum has a shot at winning Hoops 2015. But, I predict
them to lose to Gonzaga in the Elite 8 and Drum will need some help by Baylor
and others to get to 7 wins. |
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7:
John. In a tie with Drum is John. As
mentioned, I have Gonzaga in the final 4, and in fact I have them playing in
this year's championship game. But, I am better at expert analyses than
I am at the bracket contest, so the Zags may fizzle in the round of
sixteen. If they do, John will need Notre Dame to continue their hot
play from the ACC tournament to salvage his pool. |
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7.
Brian T. I told you that Drum, John and Brian
T were about even. Brian went ACC-heavy at the top with Virginia and
North Carolina. But, he also has two SEC teams, which is not good
unless one of those is Kentucky. Disregard the fact that I have two SEC
teams not named Kentucky. Brian could zip and zag past John if his Iowa
team were to upset Gonzaga. |
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6.
Eric: Actually, I think I may be whiffing on
Eric. In addition to a couple of very strong picks at the top, he has a
couple of possible 12-5 upsets. Many pundits have Arizona in the final
four, and Oklahoma could indeed make a deep run this year. That is not
to mention Butler, who may win a couple. But, I am sticking with my
prediction of 6 though I will admit that Eric could easily finish in the top
3 again this year. |
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5.
Derek: What has happened to Derek? He
tied for last in 2014, and it looks like he will tank again this year.
Villanova was his best choice in draft position #4, but he came back with a
few head-scratchers . . . including 5 of his 8 teams with double-digit
seeds. The average seed of his top 4 picks is 5.75, a full point higher
than 6 of his 7 competitors. Piet had a 5.25 (still .50 better than
Derek), and Piet went off the chart with Texas (a 12) as his 4th pick (the
luxury of having Kentucky). Although seeds obviously are not everything
(see last year's championship of a #7 vs a #8), there is a reason that they
are seeded that way . . . and it is usually because they are not as good as
teams seeded higher. |
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Derek's Draft Analysis |
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I
ran a quick simulation on some online simulator - don't know what the basis
of the probabilities are, but here are the results: |
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1) Andrew 10 (wins tie
breaker) |
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2) John 10 |
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3) Brian H. 8 |
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4) Derek 8 |
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4) Brian Taylor 8 |
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6) Piet 7 |
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7) Matt 6 |
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8) Eric 5 |
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