Post Draft Analysis |
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Andrew's Draft
Analysis |
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1. Andrew - despite the number 1 pick of the draft,
Florida, losing stunningly in the first round to Albany, the other 7
excellent draft picks will come though and Andrew will win back-to-back
championships, scoring 12 points this year. Even though the average
seed of his top-4 picks was a league-worst 5.25, Oklahoma, North Carolina,
and Pittsburgh should make it to the sweet sixteen and beyond. |
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2. Brian H - Brian is tied with Andrew for the worst
average seed at 8.88, so the final standings of the top 2 will be the inverse
of that measure. Actually, I do not expect Brian to compete for the
title this year with Duke and Wisconsin as his leading ladies. Both have
choked of late in the Big Dance. But, he has won the contest so many times
that I feel he has earned this predicted rank. So, I predict he will
finish with 6 points, but at the same time will project him at 2nd place. |
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3. John - I think Kansas has a legitimate shot at the
title this year with Wiggins (damn him and his disloyalty). Moreover, I
really like his picks of Kentucky (though a little early) and
Tennessee/Iowa. If Creighton can hold up their lofty seeding, John will
challenge for the title. He should finish with 11 points, which is a
great improvement of his 5 points of last year. |
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4. Drum - Drum actually had the best average seed and the
best top-4 average seed. But, he drafted rivals Ohio State and
Michigan, and they will make an earlier exit than he projected.
Villanova is not a top-4 team, so Drum will finish out of the money, in 4th
place with 9 points. |
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5. Derek - Syracuse will decide Derek's fate in this
contest. Will they play like the #1 team, which they were for much of
the year? Or, will they tank like they did in the last 10 games?
I expect them to mirror their regular season in the tournament . . . win
their first two games convincingly, but fall apart in game 3. That
said, I expect Arizona to play in the championship game so Derek will get 8
points. |
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6. Piet - Drafting from the 8th spot, Piet started out
with two very strong picks in Louisville and Michigan State. But, his
draft fell like a rock after that. He should get 7 points and finish
6th. |
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7. Eric - Virginia has looked very, very good this
season. But, they got hammered by Tennessee early this year and that
still sticks out to me. UCLA, San Diego State and Stanford? Eric
drafted way too many middle-of-the-road California teams to compete. He
may scrap for 6 points. I do expect him to avoid back-to-back doormats. |
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8. Brian T - Brian has some very trendy picks, I will
admit. Stephen F Austin is popular 12 v 5 pick. Iowa State and
New Mexico are popular Cinderella teams for the final 4. Of course,
Wichita State went undefeated this year. But, I think they will all
tank in crunch time, and Brian will finish with a measly 4 points. |
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Derek's Draft
Analysis |
Here are my unbiased
picks. |
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1) Derek - 12
points (even with an early exit by Syracuse) |
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2) Piet - 9 points |
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3) Andrew - 9
points (not bad, Andrew, not bad, but Florida and Dayton can only take you so
far) |
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4) Johns - 8 points |
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5 & 6) The Brians -
7 points |
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7) Eric - 6 points |
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8) Matt - 5 points |
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I decided to
use Nate Silver's probabilities (vs. Karl Rove's predictions) for an even
MORE unbiased forecast... |
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1) Matt - 8.56 |
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2) Derek - 8.48 |
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3) Piet - 8.40 |
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4) John - 7.96 |
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5) Andrew - 7.61 |
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6) Brian H. - 7.60 |
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7) Eric - 7.18 |
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8) Brian T. - 6.35 |
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Piet's Draft
Analysis |
I am pleased to release the Seed Weighted Ping Pong Ball Bracket
results (The SWPPBB replaced the statistically unsound "Trash Can
Selection Bracket"): |
1. Brian H. (14) |
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2. Drum (12) |
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3. Derek (9) |
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4. Piet (8) |
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5. Brian T.(7) |
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6. Eric (6) |
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7. Andrew (5) |
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8. John (2) |
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The complete
SWPPBB is available on request. |
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