Post Draft Analysis
Derek's Draft Analysis
Below are the estimated number of points and final ranking as tallied from Nate Silver's round-specific probabilities of advancement for each team. Note it is very close to the order of draft positions, for whatever that is worth. As I recall, in the past positions 3-6 seem to be the best, so this doesn't bode well for the system. Brian Taylor is the projected winner of Hoops 2013. If I recall, he seems to do well in my projections yet always loses miserably. Not surprising, my own ranking methods rank me high at number 2 (again, I think this is constant across years and I never seem to win - I think won in the second year we ever did this pool, 1988...I feel like La Salle, so maybe this is my year to get back on the winning track). Brian Hall will have to settle for a tie with Piet for 3rd this year.
Nate Silver Projections
1st	Brian T	8.6
2nd	Derek	8.4
3rd	Brian H	7.8
4th	Piet	7.8
5th	Eric	7.7
6th	Andrew	7.6
7th	Matt	7.5
8th	John	7.3
And for a team by team ranking of the value of each pick, relative to the draft position they were takes, see below. This is also based on the Nate Silver's probabilities. The Gain/Loss column tells you how many points you gained or lost by taking that team relative to the draft position. So it says that Andrew gained 1.19 points by picking Florida in the number 11 draft position (Silver's stats ranks Florida as the 3rd best pick on the Tourney behind Louisville and Indiana. Florida was a much better value than the number 2 value pick, Michigan by Piet, which was worth 0.47 points. The worst pick relative to draft position is judged to be Duke by Brian Hall (the reign of terror ends here!). Miami, UCLA & St. Louis are projected to be pretty crappy picks too.
Team	Who	Draft position	Pick Value	Draft Position Value	Gain/Loss
Florida	AB	11	3.052	1.866	1.186
Michigan	PS	14	2.044	1.572	0.472
Arizona	AB	22	1.393	1.022	0.371
Davidson	DJ	50	0.581	0.318	0.263
Minnesota	DJ	34	0.862	0.6	0.262
North Carolina State	BT	32	1.014	0.783	0.231
Wisconsin	DJ	15	1.572	1.393	0.179
Bucknell	ER	44	0.59	0.415	0.175
Oklahoma	AB	43	0.6	0.431	0.169
New Mexico State	MD	55	0.318	0.155	0.163
Wichita State	DJ	47	0.512	0.359	0.153
Ohio State	MD	7	2.555	2.418	0.137
Pittsburgh	BH	29	0.984	0.862	0.122
Akron	BH	52	0.359	0.251	0.108
California	PS	46	0.472	0.367	0.105
Missouri	BT	33	0.85	0.75	0.1
Valparaiso	ER	53	0.251	0.168	0.083
Oregon	JH	40	0.587	0.512	0.075
Marquette	DJ	18	1.356	1.305	0.051
UNLV	ER	21	1.142	1.093	0.049
Florida Gulf Coast	AB	58	0.14	0.128	0.012
Cincinnati	AB	38	0.586	0.581	0.005
Syracuse	BH	13	1.73	1.725	0.005
Harvard	JH	56	0.155	0.151	0.004
La Salle	AB	54	0.158	0.158	0
Louisville	BT	1	3.678	3.678	0
Indiana	DJ	2	3.556	3.556	0
Gonzaga	ER	5	2.788	2.788	0
Iona	ER	60	0.077	0.077	0
Michigan State	MD	10	1.87	1.87	0
Pacific	JH	57	0.128	0.14	-0.012
James Madison	DJ	63	0.009	0.021	-0.012
Creighton	JH	25	0.906	0.921	-0.015
North Carolina A&T	BT	64	0.003	0.02	-0.017
Mississippi	BH	45	0.367	0.385	-0.018
Butler	PS	19	1.113	1.142	-0.029
Notre Dame	AB	27	0.872	0.906	-0.034
Southern University	PS	62	0.02	0.066	-0.046
Western Kentucky	BH	61	0.021	0.072	-0.051
Colorado	DJ	31	0.75	0.802	-0.052
Iowa State	BH	36	0.533	0.587	-0.054
Albany	MD	59	0.066	0.125	-0.059
Kansas State	BT	16	1.305	1.364	-0.059
North Carolina	JH	24	0.911	0.984	-0.073
Villanova	MD	42	0.385	0.47	-0.085
Illinois	ER	28	0.783	0.872	-0.089
Oklahoma State	BH	20	1.022	1.113	-0.091
Memphis	MD	23	0.921	1.014	-0.093
Colorado State	MD	39	0.431	0.533	-0.102
San Diego State	MD	26	0.802	0.911	-0.109
Montana	BT	49	0.151	0.32	-0.169
Kansas	PS	3	2.881	3.052	-0.171
Belmont	ER	37	0.415	0.586	-0.171
Northwestern State	PS	51	0.072	0.255	-0.183
Saint Mary's	JH	41	0.255	0.472	-0.217
South Dakota State	BT	48	0.125	0.35	-0.225
Georgetown	JH	8	1.866	2.114	-0.248
VCU	BT	17	1.093	1.356	-0.263
Temple	PS	35	0.32	0.59	-0.27
New Mexico	JH	9	1.725	2.044	-0.319
Saint Louis	ER	12	1.364	1.73	-0.366
UCLA	PS	30	0.47	0.85	-0.38
Miami (FL)	AB	6	2.114	2.555	-0.441
Duke	BH	4	2.418	2.881	-0.463
Andrew's Draft Analysis
The best average seed is Drum with a 7.88.  John is worst with a 9.00 average seed.  The best among top four teams are Piet and Eric with 4.25 average seeds.
1.  Andrew - With UF, Miami and Notre Dame, I will be rooting for my team to lose.
2.  Piet - A good lineup, but his finish will depend on Kansas.  They like to choke, so look for Piet to drop accordingly.
3.  Drum - best average seed, and Michigan St always seems to turn it up in the tournament.  Could make a serious run.
4.  Derek - I like the Big X combo of Indiana/Wisconsin.   Also, a third Big X team, Minnesota, could get D an upset or two.
5.  Brian H. -  I have Duke as my national champion, so Brian will get some points.
6.  Brian T. - Brian did what he had to do with Louisville, but he just doesn't have much to back them up.
7.  Eric - relying on Gonzaga and St. Louis to carry him.  Ugh.
8.  John - tough to draft 8th.  Will probably finish 8th.  John did make a very nice pick of Oregon, and will get a win in the Harvard/UNM game.