Post Draft Analysis |
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Andrew's Analysis |
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After careful
consideration, here is my draft analysis for NHASED Hoops 2012: |
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Here are some stats: The lowest average seed for all teams
is Drum with a 7.25. Next lowest is Brian H with a 7.88. Lowest
4-team average seed is Drum with a 3.75.
Second is a tie between Brian H and Derek with a 4.25. |
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The worst average seed is John with a 9.38, followed by Piet
with a 9.25. The worst 4-team average seed is John with a 6.00.
No one else is close (Eric and Piet have 4.75). |
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Here is the
predicted order of finish for Hoops 2012: |
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1. Andrew (12 points). I expect to get 6 points from
Kentucky (duh, I would not have picked them #1 overall). Wichita State
and Michigan will make the sweet sixteen. That brings me up to
10. The other two will come somehow from Virginia, Purdue, and
Texas. I am hoping to get one from Virginia and exactly one from
Texas. Anything beyond those 12 points will be gravy. |
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2. Brian H (10 points). I really like his first two
(Kansas and Duke), and those could actually meet for the championship.
If that happens, we will all bow down to Brian H again (he correctly reminded
us that he had two teams (Arizona and Kentucky) meet for the championship in
1997. Also on his roster are Murray State and Florida, who could do
some damage. He got the freaking defending national champion in the
fifth round! Thank the basketball draft gods that I have a strong
roster of teams, or Brian would run away with things. |
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3. Drum (11 points, now 10, now 9). Drum's strength
is falling fast now that Syracuse suspended their big man, F- Melo.
However, this could be a rallying point for the Orange . . . so I'm telling
you there's a chance. Even if Syrabuse falters, it would likely be in
the final 8 to FSU so they will get some points. I think that Marquette
is a good team, and Indiana sounds good . . . though they will get
"shocked" by Wichita State. Drum also has Gonzaga, and we all
know the Zags could make a run no matter their seed. Drum has the
lowest average seed, so he is hoping for chalk to carry the day. |
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4 (tie). Brian T. (8 points). Brian made a
good strategic trade to move to 3 and grab North Carolina. Carolina has
the most future NBA prospects and they should give their best effort on the
national stage. If they don't get past Kansas, Brian H will look like a
genius for the trade. Brian T also has strength in the SEC champion
Vanderbilt, and Temple is a good team. He got a very good bargain, in
my opinion, with West Virginia in the 6th round. However, despite the
good trade to get UNC, he stumbled with a few picks in later rounds and will
finish in the middle of the pack. |
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4 (tie). Piet (8 points). Piet went Big Ten strong
this year with Michigan State and Wisconsin as his first two picks. If
you are going to ride a conference, he may have picked a good one. Izzo
seems to know what he is doing in the tournament and Wisconsin has been there
for 693 consecutive years. UNLV may garner Piet a point, or even
two. However, he has a bunch of no-names below that. Of course,
VCU was a no-name last year too and FSU is still trying to work out the sting
of that one. |
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6 (tie). Eric (6 points). I really wanted to put
Eric higher since he had the balls to pick FSU in the first round. But,
he showed his lack of confidence by picking Ohio State right behind
them. WTH? Anyway, both of those teams cannot make the final
8. I hope he has the national champion on his roster, but even that
won't win him the title of guru this year. Not even close. |
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7 (tie). Derek (6 points). I am not sold on
Missouri. But, that lack of respect has been their rallying cry to the
tune of a 30-win season in a very difficult conference. They may very
well continue to surprise me and all the other expert handicappers. If
they do, Derek will move up this list. However, he has too many washed
up Metro conference teams to seriously contend (Louisville and Cincinnati . .
. surprised he didn't take Memphis. Hell, I'm surprised he didn't take
Virginia Tech. No, I won't mention Florida State). |
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8. John (5 points). John's top two teams are
Georgetown and Baylor. Both fine teams, but I am not expecting to see
either in the final 8, much less the final 4. He will hope to steal a
win from Notre Dame or North Carolina State, but there is a chance that he
could be down to two teams on Saturday morning. Trust me, I know the
feeling from last year. And I had no teams in the final 8.
Not a fun pool. |
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Derek's Analysis |
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Here is my draft analysis based on win probabilities that I
found somewhere on the web (can't remember where, isn't really important
anyway). |
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My predicted rank of players starts and ends like Andrew's, with
Andrew finishing #1 and John finishing #8. However, I project myself (big
surprise) to finish #2 (actually, it is a surprise that I didn't pick myself
to finish #1), followed by Matt, Eric, Piet, Brian H, Brian T, and John. |
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According to the expected points that each team will produce
(based on win probabilities) relative to draft position, Eric had the best
pick with Ohio St. as the #1 ranked team with the 9th draft position, upping
his expected by 1.5 points. Other good picks were Indiana, Texas, St. Bonnie,
New Mexico, KSU, Col. St., Kansas & Michigan. Derek had 3 of the top 10
and Andrew had 2, and the rest were spread among everyone except Brian T, who
had 0 of the top 10 picks. |
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Now, before I report the 10 worst picks, I must stress that
these are not based on my own opinions - I only report the numbers that were
generated. Don't hate the messenger. Eric also had the worst pick with
FSU, costing him 0.95 points. Kentucky and Syracuse were apparently also bad
picks, based largely on what, in my opinion, was an over-inflated point
expectation of Ohio State. Brian T had 3 of the 10 worst picks, John 2, and
the others were spread out among all of use except Brian H, who had 0. |
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Click here for the raw data and more complete stats. |
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Brian H's Observations |
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Andrews top two picks UK & WSU can meet in Sweet 16 -
allowing only one to advance to Elite 8. But a sure Sweet 16 win if they
meet. |
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Same for Taylor with UNC and Vandy. |
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Same with Eric - OSU & FSU. |
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Derek fairs
better with a potential Louisville - Mizzou Elite 8 matchup of top 2
picks. |
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My KU and Duke
can meet in Final Four semis. |
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Each of three
remaining contenders has a potential national championship matchup. |
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Piet's Anagram Challenge |
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In an attempt to "jazz up" the trashcan picks, I was
inspired to "anagram" (not usually a vowel) the first
letter of each team selected by each of us and then add in the vowels of the
two regions most frequently selected. So, if you selected 3 teams form
the south and 3 from
the west the
vowels used would be o, u and e. In the event of a tie, I used
both regions' vowels. The results were, as you would expect marginally
humorous (my comments are italicized): |
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Andrew:
Puke Vomit WOW |
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No surprises
here Brady... |
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Brian H:
Fuck End, Ms. No? |
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James bond
Porno? |
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Brian
T.: Blent Swivel?? |
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Derek:
Cell mice Neck |
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Drum:
"Malicious Age" or "I is Guacamole" |
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Eric:
Sum loofah Sex |
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John: Madness
Begin |
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This is pretty
cool, good job John. |
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Piet: As I was the only player to pick 2 teams from each
region, I had all the vowels, which made my anagrams look like Dutch street
slang (which is appropriate). |
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So, in the anagram challenge I declare John the winner
based on relevance. Eric the runner up, because I said so and Andrew,
Brian H., and Drum tied for 3rd. |
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