Post Draft Analysis

Derek's Analysis

I don’t want to keep you waiting any longer so here you go…my analytical method, hereafter known as the “Brian Taylor is the Best Method”, for the third year in a row has picked Brian Taylor to win the Hoops Competition. I’m sure Brian is less than thrilled to hear this since he didn’t win the last two years. Good luck, Brian T…hehehe. Brian interestingly dominates both the Best and Worst Picks list.

1) Brian T (Winner)

2) John (1^st Loser)

3) Andrew

4) Eric

5) Derek

6) Drum

7) Brian H

8) Piet

Note: This year, I couldn’t find probabilities of advancing to each round that was based on the actual brackets, as I found last year. The probabilities were calculated before the brackets were announced resulting in predictions that are not based on actual match ups. Thus, the predictions should theoretically be less accurate than before. For practical purposes, however, this years predictions are probably equally as crappy as before.

Best Picks (and mean number of points gained by making that pick in the draft position)

1) BYU (Drum) 0.54 Note, the model doesn’t take into account BYU’s loss of the slutty rebounder.

2) George Mason (Brian T) 0.52 Could this be another miracle season?

3) Old Dominion (Brian T) 0.50 Hmmm…starting to think the model is biased toward the Colonial Conference

4) Marquette (Piet) 0.42 It does seem like any Big East team could be prepared to make a run.

5) Long Island (Brian T) 0.34 Clearly the model is flawed and you should all stop reading right about now

Worst Picks

1) Utah St. (Piet) -0.48 I don’t know anything about this team

2) Kansas St. (Brian H) -0.45 A hot team, the model doesn’t take streaks into the calculations, nor bracket match ups (i.e. how can 1^st round opponents Utah St. & KState both be such bad picks?)

3) Michigan (Brian T) -0.39 Didn’t seem so bad to me

4) Washington (Brian T) -0.35 Coming out of a weak Pac-10

5) FSU (Drum) -0.34 But you gotta love the spirit of this pick, and at least it isn’t the worst pick THIS year.

Andrew's Analysis

After careful consideration, here is my predicted order of finish in this years NHASED Hoops 2011:

1. Andrew (13 points). I was fortunate to draft in the number 2 position as I picked up the eventual national champion, Ohio State, which will garner 6 guaranteed points alone. Brian H won last year’s contest with 12 points, so I am halfway there with only one team. I should get at least two wins from Louisville and Wisconsin . . . with the Cards potentially knocking off Brian H’s Kansas team. I will need the expected upset wins by the two Bulldogs (Georgia and Gonzaga) and the two Tigers (Memphis and Clemson). After round 1, I could have 7 teams alive and will be looking for a mere 5 more to win. Those 5 will come from Ohio State, and I should have some insurance points in there as well.

2. Brian H (10 points). It is hard to bet against Brian H since he is our defending champion and has won this contest 6 of the last 10 years. However, two of his picks were made without even knowing who they are (USC/VCU and UTSA/ASU), and he is putting a lot of stock in the state of Kansas with both Kansas and Kansas State on his roster. However, if Kansas makes a deep run and Michigan State does what they do in the tournament, he could be in the mix again. The Wildcats (KSU) are his Wildcard. If they can get him 3 or 4 points, he may steal the win from Andrew.

3. John (8 points). John is the best team on paper with an average seed of 7.75. The average seed of his top 4 picks is 4.00 with Duke, Purdue, Arizona and Temple. He will need first-round wins from Temple, UNLV and Illinois*, along with expected wins from Duke, Purdue and Arizona. If those happen and Duke goes to the final game, John will be in very good shape.

*John correctly pointed out that UNLV and Illinois cannot both collect first round wins . . . They play each other. Therefore, John's new estimated point total is 7.

4. Eric (7 points). I originally had Eric as number three. He has potential for a very good tournament, but he has some risks on his roster. He has four teams ranked as a 12-seed or below. Although Richmond is a trendy upset pick, he could be down to 4 teams after the first round. Or worse. Xavier and Cincinnati are very iffy. Pittsburgh is in good shape and I think Kentucky will win at least twice. His fate rests mostly on Xavier and Cincinnati. And avoiding an early exit for Pittsburgh.

4 (tie). Derek (7 points). At times this year, Texas and St. John’s have played like they could beat anyone. If they catch fire, they could play for it all. Or, they could flame out in the 2^nd round. I suspect that someone will catch them sleeping and neither will make it to the regional semifinals (I do have Texas in my sweet 16). Notre Dame will hopefully get blown out in the second round by either Florida State or Texas A&M, so he will only collect a point from the Irish. UCLA, Butler and Nova are one point at best.

6. Drum (6 points). I am hopeful that Drum collects at least 2 points from our beloved FSU and maybe even 3. He should get a couple from UNC, though they will be challenged by Syracuse in round three. I think the blueprint for beating BYU is fairly obvious, but the execution of stopping Fredette is the challenge. I think the winner of St. Johns/Gonzaga will be up to the challenge . . . if John’s Wofford doesn’t take care of that first.

6 (tie). Piet (6 points). With Texas A&M and Florida on his roster, I think we can all agree on wishing Piet to flame out in the first round . . . you know, like he did last year. He could pick up a few points from the Crocs, but they are way overrated as a #2 seed. Connecticut is possibly good for 3 or 4 wins, but they have dead legs after the Big East tournament and may not show up on Saturday should they win round 1. Piet has a couple good upsets picks in Marquette and Utah State that could salvage his draft and maybe move him out of this three way tie for the basement. It is just typical that he would take St. Peter’s.

6 (tie). Brian T (6 points). I really like his pick of Syracuse and think they could go far. In fact, the Orange are in my final 4. However, it is slim pickins’ for Brian after that. Sure, he has San Diego State as a #2 seed, but who has SDSU beaten to prove they can make a run in the tournament? They beat Gonzaga an (11-seed) by 3 points and BYU (3-seed) one out of three times. That is pretty much it outside of UNLV. Brian will need SDSU to make a run and also he needs a win from 3 teams involved in a 8-9 matchup.

Best pick of the draft in my opinion: Brian T with Syracuse

Best pick of the draft on paper: Brian T with George Mason (8-seed as the 42^nd pick). Or Eric with Cincinnati (6-seed as the 30^th pick). Piet looks good on paper with Vanderbilt (5 seed as the 24^th)

Worst pick of the draft in my opinion: Probably Derek selecting Notre Dame with Duke still available.

Worst pick of the draft on paper: That is tougher. You may have to say Drum picking a 10seed early in the 4^th round, but can you blame him for having a little faith?!? Let’s go with Eric’s pick of Richmond, a 12-seed early in the 5^th round. Even that may turn out to be a good sleeper pick though.

Best overall average seed: John with 7.75.

Worst overall average seed: Eric and Brian H with 9.00.

Best average top four seeds: John with 4.00.

Worst average top four seeds: Drum and Brian H with 5.25.

Piet's Trash Can Picks

Hello All In the NHASED Sportsworld:

This year Piet's Trashcan has had a format change. Here at Trashcan Central (more than just a brown circular file) we have converted to a double elimination seeded bracket format. I have attached a copy of this year's bracket.

As you will recall, my trashcan has been successful the past in having very little relevance in picking the winner, but has incorrectly predicted the winner with greater accuracy than the other analysts. Therefore, using the Krogenfelter principle, you can rely on my trashcan to produce negative results without deviation.

Here are the 2011 results:

1. Drum

2. Brian H.

3. John

4. Andrew

5. Derek/Eric

7. Brian T/Piet

Note: In double elimination the 5/6 and 7/8 slots are both eliminated in the same round and therefore tied in sucktitude.

Just wait until next year,

Piet

Brian H's Analysis

Well, the tourney is underway and Derek and I have the first wins of the day. If only I had taken Butler, I would have the first two of the day!

Sadly, though, neither of us has a chance of winning, and neither does Piet. No one has won from the 1-4-8 slot over the last ten years -- the whole of recorded history of the NHASED Hoops Bracket Contest -- has become the eventual winner. Over that time, the 2-spot has won twice, the 3-spot has won once, the 5-spot has won 4 times, the 6-spot twice, and the 7-spot once.

2010 BH 5

2009 JH 7

2008 ER 2

2007 BH 6

2006 BH 5

2005 BH 2

2004 BH 5

2003 MS 6

2002 AB 3

2001 BH 5

Here's hoping I pick in the 5 hole next year!

Brian