Post Draft Analysis

Derek's Analysis based on WhatIfSports.com predictions

Again, I present predictions based on the WhatIfSports.com simulation model predictions. From this model, I calculated the average number of wins for each team. This is done by simply adding the percentage chance that each team will advance past each round. For example, if the chance that Univ. of Nowhere makes it to and advances in rounds 1-6 is 98.5%, 84.6%, 60.8%, 42.1%, 28.8%, and 21.6%, then I added these percentages and divided by 100 to predict that Univ. of Nowhere will, on average, generate 3.36 wins in the tournament.

If the model is accurate, a big ‘if’, then Brian T. is the favorite for the second year in a row (of course he didn’t win last year so…), followed by Andrew, Piet and Derek. You can see the Predicted Points and Rank in two right hand columns in the table below. I’ve done additional analysis to estimate the value of drafting 1st, 2nd, etc. In the below table, you see Pick Position (a.k.a. Draft Position) then Position Value. This value was calculated by assuming that each person made the optimal draft selections based on the WhatIfSports model. That is, given the remaining teams in the field, the person would always draft the team with the highest expected number of wins.

Despite Andrew’s feeling that third draft position is best, the model would predict that the 1st position was optimal this year (see blue line in Figure below). Of course, that says nothing about any other year. The number is the average number of points that the model predicts each player will receive. You can also compare how each draft position should have faired (blue line) to the predicted points of that person in that position. So before Brain T pats himself on the back, he should note that his Predicted Points, while more than anyone elses, is still a little below the value of that position. So this was just an average draft for Brian. Piet, on the other hand, had an excellent draft considering his terrible drafting position of 7. Eric and I didn’t do too bad either (I will pat myself on the back here).

Lastly, again this year I have ranked the value of each persons pick. It seems that WhatIfSports thinks that Brian H’s pick of Baylor was the best pick given the draft position number 12. Baylor’s expected to win 2.34 games (on average), while draft position 12 should produce a team that would win 1.52 games; thus, Brian H gained 2.34-1.52=0.82 points with that pick. Piet made two top 10 picks with Utah St. and UTEP, Brian T. made excellent picks with Murray St. and Cornell, Eric did well with BYU and Montana, I did well with Maryland, as did John and Andrew with SDSU and Georgia Tech, respectively, to round out the top ten. At the other end of the spectrum, Andrew didn’t do himself any favors by picking Purdue pick, and Brian H did himself in by picking Kansas State and Butler.

Having said all of this, I’d like to stress that the predicted points are so close that, as Eric pointed out yesterday, the stochastic nature of the game means any one of us could win. All they need is one hot team and a lucky 3-pointer at the buzzer.

Pick Position

Position Value

Predicted Points

Rank

Brian T

8.8

8.66

Andrew

8.45

8.56

Piet

7.62

8.5

Derek

7.9

8.49

Eric

7.31

7.89

Brian H

7.62

7.39

John

7.67

7.15

Matt

7.66

6.4

Andrew's Analysis

Here is my predicted order of finish with some comments:

Well, my brackets have Kansas facing Duke in the final game, so how I ended up with Syracuse as the number 2 overall pick may confuse some. Especially, since they will hopefully be playing the Noles in round 2. Actually . . . I am hoping that Syracuse loses to a 16 in round 1. If Syracuse should happen to advance to the sweet sixteen, I will carry their torch and ride them all the way to the championship like I did UNC last year. I expect to pick up a few more early wins than I did last year, so I will be in the thick of things and it may come down to the Orange winning it all for me to claim the Hoops 2010 championship.

I think that Brian T drafted the national champion, Kansas . . . but Temple and Tennessee are prime upset specials. Given that he will collect 6 points from Kansas alone, he only needs four more points from his other 7 teams to finish with 10 points, which he probably will get somehow, someway. That is good enough for 2nd place to my 11 points.

Eric's fate relies, in my opinion on BYU and Siena. But, he did get a good Missouri team all the way in the 6th round. Ohio State is a sold sweet-sixteen pick, as is Pittsburgh. Actually, this is adding up to a lot of points. He may challenge for the title, but I think he slips to third place based on not having any final four teams on his roster.

Brian H is in a dead heat with Drum for the best team on paper. Drum bests Brian based on top-4 average seed tiebreaker, but I think Brian H will finish with more points and finish in fourth place. Kansas State is a better 2-seed than Villanova in my opinion, and Baylor is better than New Mexico as a 3, so he will outdo Drum. Brian will hopefully lose all three of his 8-seeds in round one.

Piet has 3 Big East teams, so that alone is good enough to move him to finish in the top-half of the standings. But no, 5 is my prediction for him. Piet stole my two 12-seed upsets. If Clemson could somehow make it to the sweet sixteen, his finish will improve drastically. But, they are a bunch of tournament chokers. As is Piet.

Derek has a good chance to improve his final rank if Wisconsin does as good as he and I both expect. But, he has Duke and we all know that the Dookies are always a potential slayed giant. Derek drafted two teams that my bracket shows in the final four, so it troubles me a little that I have him predicted to finish in 6th place. Maybe I should redo my brackets . . . or move Derek up this list.

Drum has the best team on paper, so I probably should not pick him to repeat as the league doormat, and I won't. He has good seeds, but they just don't sound good when you say them out loud. Try it . . . Villanova. New Mexico. Vanderbilt. Xavier. Florida. If you looked at these teams without the seeds attached, you'd actually pick Drum to be the first person ever in this contest to get skunked. So, it is like picking a football game with two teams that you know little about. Always pick the team with the best QB. And, in this case, I do not pick Drum's team.

Rounding out this year's contest is John's collection of crappy teams. Basically, I am not crazy about his second pick, Texas A&M. Kentucky maaaayyyyyy make it to the sweet sixteen, but they would likely be beaten by a solid Wisconsin . . . who play controlled, fundamental basketball. Michigan State is decent, but not great. I could see John being down to 2 teams after round 1. And none among the final eight.

Piet's Trash Can Picks

The long awaited trash can predictions have been completed. This year TCPs results were reviewed by PricewaterhouseCoopers to ensure compliance with the TCP policies and procedures, as well as, NCAA guidelines and NHASED Commissioner Edicts. The results are as follows:

1.Piet

2.Derek

3.Brian T.

4.Andrew

5.Brian H.

6.Drum

7.John H.

8.Eric

You will note that the TCP Top and Bottom 4 match the Derek Algorithm, thus adding credibility to both methods.

Brian H's analysis

Piet has the best 1-2 punch with WVa and G'Town.

Derek and John have the best 1-2-3 punches.

Taylor, Eric, and Andrew have no chance.

Tomorrow night will determine if I am in it -- 6 of my 8 teams play the first night I think.