| Post Draft Analysis | ||
| Derek's Analysis based on WhatIfSports.com predictions | ||
| I’d like to present predictions based on the WhatIfSports.com simulation model predictions. If the model is accurate, a big ‘if’, then Brian T. is decided favorite to win with John, Andrew, and Derek fighting it out for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place (see below). The number is the average number of points that the model predicts each player will receive. This is done by simply adding the percentage chance that each team will advance past each round. For example, the chance that UNC makes it to and advances in rounds 1-6 is 98.5%, 84.6%, 60.8%, 42.1%, 28.8%, and 21.6%. I added these percentages and divided by 100 to predict that UNC will, on average, generate 3.36 wins in the tournament. | ||
| 1) Brian T. 9.3 | ||
| 2) John 8.7 | ||
| 3) Andrew 8.6 | ||
| 4) Derek 8.5 | ||
| 5) Brian H. 8.4 | ||
| 6) Piet 6.7 | ||
| 7) Eric 6.5 | ||
| 8) Drum 5.9 | ||
| Also, I did a bit of team-by-team draft analysis below. After ranking all of the teams based on predicted number of points that they would generate, and comparing that to our draft order, I came up with the following list from best to worst picks (based on the predicted points generated from that draft position). A large positive number means it was a very good pick for that draft position, a negative number…not so good. It looks like Brian T.’s Gonzaga pick was the best of the draft, followed closely by John’s UConn pick. Brian H. dominated the top 10 best picks with four (Miss. St., UCLA, Clemson & Cornell), but was hurt badly in the draft analysis by his Missouri pick which was the 63rd worst pick, only ahead of Drum’s FSU pick. I’m looking forward to seeing how these numbers play out. | ||
| Team | person | Points gained |
| 4 Gonzaga | Brian T. | 0.921 |
| John | 0.848 | |
| 2 Oklahoma | John | 0.656 |
| 10 Minn. | Andrew | 0.535 |
| 13 Miss. St. | Brian H. | 0.478 |
| 6 UCLA | Brian H. | 0.478 |
| 7 Clemson | Brian H. | 0.401 |
| 11 Utah St. | Brian T. | 0.397 |
| 14 Cornell | Brian H. | 0.394 |
| 8 Ohio St. | Derek | 0.39 |
| 15 Rob. Morris | Derek | 0.366 |
| 3 Syracuse | Piet | 0.337 |
| 12 Arizona | John | 0.295 |
| 13 Cleve. St. | Derek | 0.273 |
| 8 LSU | Brian H. | 0.261 |
| 14 NDSU | John | 0.25 |
| 7 BC | Brian T. | 0.242 |
| 8 BYU | Piet | 0.224 |
| 6 Az. St. | Derek | 0.217 |
| 7 Cal | Drum | 0.204 |
| 3 Kansas | Brian H. | 0.202 |
| Andrew | 0.2 | |
| 2 Memphis | Derek | 0.179 |
| 6 WVU | Andrew | 0.138 |
| 5 Purdue | Piet | 0.099 |
| 12 Wisconsin | Brian T. | 0.065 |
| 14 American | Brian H. | 0.058 |
| 4 Xavier | Brian T. | 0.031 |
| 15 CS-North | John | 0.025 |
| 4 Wake | Andrew | 0.024 |
| 16 ETSU | Eric | 0.008 |
| 16 Morehead | Drum | 0.004 |
| 16 Radford | Brian T. | 0 |
| 13 Port. St. | Andrew | 0 |
| 3 Villanova | Derek | 0 |
| Eric | 0 | |
| 16 Chatt. | Andrew | -0.002 |
| 15 Morgan St. | Piet | -0.006 |
| 9 Tex. A&M | Piet | -0.054 |
| 11 Temple | Drum | -0.07 |
| 2 Mich. St. | Drum | -0.072 |
| 12 NIU | Brian T. | -0.096 |
| 15 Bing. | Drum | -0.113 |
| 9 Butler | John | -0.14 |
| 11 Dayton | Eric | -0.141 |
| 9 Tenn. | Andrew | -0.173 |
| 8 Ok. St. | Drum | -0.182 |
| 5 Utah | Drum | -0.214 |
| 11 VCU | Piet | -0.221 |
| 14 SFA | Piet | -0.227 |
| 12 WKU | Eric | -0.257 |
| 7 Texas | Derek | -0.272 |
| 9 Siena | Eric | -0.278 |
| 10 Michigan | Derek | -0.281 |
| 13 Akron | Eric | -0.304 |
| 10 USC | John | -0.311 |
| 10 Maryland | Andrew | -0.321 |
| 5 Illinois | John | -0.398 |
| 6 Marquette | Eric | -0.452 |
| 4 Wash | Eric | -0.581 |
| 2 Duke | Piet | -0.815 |
| Brian T. | -0.834 | |
| 3 Missouri | Brian H. | -1.031 |
| 5 FSU | Drum | -1.354 |
| Andrew's Analysis | ||
| Here is my predicted order of finish with some comments: | ||
| Andrew will likely need UNC to win the whole enchilada to have a chance as I will be lucky to have two teams in the sweet sixteen. But, since I do expect UNC to win it all, I have a good chance of claiming the title as long as I get 4 first round wins and maybe somehow get 3 second round points. | ||
| On paper, Derek is the favorite to win. Also, he has a nice list of name teams . . . Nova, Memphis, Arizona State, Texas, Ohio State, Michigan. I would be shocked if he finished any lower than second place, and he will likely win if UNC does not go all the way. However, he can only win if Memphis can make a deep run. I expect Memphis to lose after making the sweet sixteen and that will hurt Derek. All in all, he will do Bill P proud I think. | ||
| Piet has a good roster of decent teams and will compete for second place. I think Duke has the potential to make the final four this year because they have more depth than in recent past. Also, they play good defense and do not turn the ball over. I still hate them though. Syracuse is a sold sweet sixteen pick and maybe elite eight. VCU is everyone’s upset pick. | ||
| I don’t know enough about Washington to give Eric any chance to win this year. However, he should pick up wins from his Big East teams. If Siena and WKU lose in round 1, he will drop two slots down in the standings. | ||
| John will find early success with some solid teams, but will fall off late . . . and finish in middle of the pack I expect. If USC makes the sweet sixteen, he will jump Eric and Piet. | ||
| Brian H’s entire chances depend on Missouri and Kansas both making it to the final 8 which I don’t see happening. I expect Kansas to bow out early. Missouri could make the Elite 8, so I may have Brian figured all wrong. He has the most unpredictable team. If it were last year, I would pick him to win no matter what. But, his streak is over. | ||
| Brian T has sold himself to the devil by picking both Wisconsin and Xavier. I am surprised that he didn’t take Pittsburgh to boot. Louisville is solid, and he really needs the Zags to make their way into the elite 8. | ||
| I think we would all agree to root for Drum’s top two teams to face off for the national championship. But, every one of his top five seeds needs to be on upset alert. Four of the Five are on upset alerts in round 1. Michigan State should be very careful against the USC/BC winner. | ||
| Piet's Trashcan: | ||
| 1. Derek | ||
| 2. Andrew | ||
| 3. Brian H. | ||
| 4. Drum | ||
| 5. Piet | ||
| 6. Eric | ||
| 7. John | ||
| 8. Brian T. | ||