James Brian Elsner

 

Department of Geography

Florida State University

Tallahassee, FL 32306-2190

jbelsner@elsner.coss.fsu.edu

phone: (850) 644-8374, fax: (850) 644-5913

 

EDUCATION

Ph.D. University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee 1988

M.S. University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee 1984

B.S. University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee 1981

 

EXPERIENCE

Associate Professor, Department of Geography, FSU, 1998–present

Associate Professor, Department of Meteorology, FSU, 1995–1998

Assistant Professor, Department of Meteorology, FSU, 1990–1995

Lecturer, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, 1989–1990

Research Scientist, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, 1989

 

ORGANIZATIONS

American Meteorological Society

European Geophysical Society

 

AWARDS

Faculty Sabbatical (full salary), 1997, FSU

Teaching Incentive Program Award, 1996, FSU

Outstanding Student Teacher Award, 1987, UWM

 

PUBLICATIONS

Refereed Journal Articles

1.  Jagger, T., J. B. Elsner, & X. Niu, 2001: A dynamic probability model of hurricane winds in coastal counties of the United States. J. Appl. Meteor. in press.

 

2.  Carter, M. M., J. B. Elsner, & S. P. Bennett, 2001: A quantitative precipitation forecast experiment for Puerto Rico. Journal of Hydrology, in press.

 

3.  Murnane, R. J., J. B. Elsner, & coauthors, 2000: Model estimates hurricane wind speed probabilities. EOS, 81, 433, 438.

 

4.  Elsner J. B., K.-b. Liu, & B. Kocher, 2000: Spatial variations in major U. S. hurricane activity: Statistics and a physical mechanism. Journal of Climate, 13, 2293–2305.

 

5.  Elsner J. B., T. Jagger & X. Niu, 2000: Changes in the rates of North Atlantic major hurricane activity during the 20th century. Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 1743–1746.

 

6.  Elsner J. B., & B. Kocher, 2000: Global tropical cyclone activity: A link to the North Atlantic oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 129–132.

 

7.  Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1999: The autocorrelation function and human influences on climate. Science, 285, 495.

 

8.  Elsner J. B., A. B. Kara, & M. A. Owens, 1999: Fluctuations in North Atlantic hurricane frequency. Journal of Climate, 12, 427–437.

 

9.  Tsonis, A. A., P. J. Roebber, and J. B. Elsner, 1999: Long-range correlations in the extratropical atmospheric circulation: Origin and implications. Journal of Climate, 12, 1534–1541.

 

10.  Kara, A. B., & J. B. Elsner, 1998: Characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer for coastal and inland locations around the Gulf of Mexico, Atmosfera, 12, 1–13.

 

11.  Elsner J. B., X. Niu, & A. A. Tsonis, 1998: Multi-year prediction model of North Atlantic hurricane activity, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 68, 43–51.

 

12.  Kara, A. B., P. H. Ruscher, & J. B. Elsner, 1998: Numerical models of boundary layer processes over and around the Gulf of Mexico during a return-flow event, Weather and Forecasting, 13, 921–933.

 

13.  Bove, M. C., J. B. Elsner, C. W. Landsea, X. Niu, & J. J. O’Brien, 1998: Effect of El Nio on U. S. landfalling hurricanes, revisited, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79, 2477–2482.

 

14.  Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1998: Comments on “The southern oscillation as an example of a simple, ordered subsystem of a complex chaotic system"–Reply, Journal of Climate, 11, 2460.

 

15.  Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1998: Comments on “The southern oscillation as an example of a simple, ordered subsystem of a complex chaotic system," Journal of Climate, 11, 2453–2454, 2460.

 

16.  Tsonis, A. A., P. J. Roebber, & J. B. Elsner, 1998: A characteristic time scale in the global temperature record, Geophysical Research Letters, 25, 2821–2823.

 

17.  Kimberlain, T. B., & J. B. Elsner, 1998: The 1995 and 1996 North Atlantic hurricane seasons: A return of the tropical-only hurricane, Journal of Climate, 11, 2062–2069.

 

18.  Kara, A. B., J. B. Elsner, & P. H. Ruscher, 1998: Physical mechanism for the Tallahassee, Florida minimum temperature anomaly, Journal of Applied Meteorology, 37, 101–113.

 

19.  Tsonis, A. A., P. J. Roebber, & J. B. Elsner, 1997: Do climate simulations from sea surface temperature forced models represent actual dynamics? Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 4, 93–100.

 

20.  Carter, M. M., & J. B. Elsner, 1997: A statistical method for forecasting rainfall over Puerto Rico, Weather and Forecasting, 12, 515–525.

 

21.  Lehmiller, G. S., T. B. Kimberlain, & J. B. Elsner, 1997: Seasonal prediction models for North Atlantic basin hurricane location, Monthly Weather Review, 125, 1780–1791.

 

22.  Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1997: Global temperature as a regulator of climate predictability, Physica D, 108, 191–196.

 

23.  Tsonis, A. A., J. B. Elsner, & P. A. Tsonis, 1997: Is DNA a language? Journal of Theoretical Biology, 184, 25–29.

 

24.  Carter, M. M., and J. B. Elsner, 1996: Convective rainfall regions of Puerto Rico, International Journal of Climatology, 16, 1033–1043.

 

25.  Elsner J. B., G. S. Lehmiller, & T. B. Kimberlain, 1996: Objective classification of Atlantic basin hurricanes, Journal of Climate, 9, 2880–2889.

 

26.  Elsner J. B., H. E. Fuelberg, R. L. Deal III, J. A. Orrock, G. S. Lehmiller, & P. H. Ruscher, 1996: Tallahassee, Florida, minimum temperature anomaly: Description and speculations, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 77, 721–728.

 

27.  Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1996: Mapping the channels of communication between the tropics and midlatitudes, Physica D, 92, 237–244.

 

28.  Tsonis, A. A., P. Kumar, J. B. Elsner, & P. A. Tsonis, 1996: Wavelet analysis of DNA sequences, Physical Review E, 53, 1828–1834.

 

29.  Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1995: Testing for scaling in natural forms and observables, Journal of Statistical Physics, 81, 869–880.

 

30.  Triantafyllou, J. B. Elsner, A. Lascaratos, C. Koutitas, & A. A. Tsonis, 1995: Structure and properties of the attractor of a marine dynamical system, Mathematical and Computational Modelling, 21, 73–86.

 

31.  Hess, J. C., J. B. Elsner, & N. E. LaSeur, 1995: Improving seasonal hurricane predictions for the Atlantic basin, Weather and Forecasting, 10, 425–432.

 

32.  Elsner J. B., & C. P. Schmertmann, 1994: Assessing forecast skill through cross validation, Weather and Forecasting, 9, 619–624.

 

33.  Elsner J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1994: Low-frequency oscillation, Nature, 372, 507–508.

 

34.  Tsonis, A. A., G. N. Triantafyllou, J. B. Elsner, J. J. Holdzkom II, & A. D. Kirwan Jr., 1994: An investigation on the ability of nonlinear methods to infer dynamics from observations, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 75, 1623–1633.

 

35.  Elsner J. B., & J. C. Honorι, 1994: Ignoring chaos, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 75, 1846–1847.

 

36.  Hess, J. C., & J. B. Elsner, 1994: Extended-range hindcasts of tropical-origin Atlantic hurricane activity, Geophysical Research Letters, 21, 365–368.

 

37.  Hess, J. C., & J. B. Elsner, 1994: Historical developments leading to forecasts of annual Atlantic tropical-cyclone activity, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 75, 1611–1621.

 

38.  Tsonis, A. A., G. Triantafyllou, & J. B. Elsner, 1994: Searching for determinism in observed data: A review of the issues involved, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 1, 12–25.

 

39.  Elsner J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1994: Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 1, 41–44.

 

40.  Tsonis, A. A., J. B. Elsner, & P. A. Tsonis, 1993: On the existence of scaling in DNA sequences, Biochemical and Biophysical Research Communications, 97, 1288–1295.

 

41.  Elsner J. B., & C. P. Schmertmann, 1993: Improving extended-range seasonal predictions of intense Atlantic hurricane activity, Weather and Forecasting, 8, 345–351.

 

42.  Tsonis, A. A., J. B. Elsner, & K. P. Georgakakos, 1993: Estimating the dimensions of weather and climate attractors: Important issues about the procedure and interpretation, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 50, 2549–2555.

 

43.  Elsner J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1993: Nonlinear dynamics established in the ENSO, Geophysical Research Letters, 20, 213–216.

 

44.  Elsner J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1993: Complexity and predictability of hourly precipitation, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 50, 400–405.

 

45.  Elsner J. B., 1992: A description of low-frequency atmospheric oscillations over the Northern Hemisphere using singular spectrum analysis, Geophysical Research Letters, 19, 1775–1778.

 

46.  Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1992: Nonlinear prediction as a way of distinguishing chaos from random fractal sequences, Nature, 358, 217–220.

 

47.  Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1992: Temperature oscillations, Nature, 356, 751.

 

48.  Elsner J. B., 1992: Predicting time series using a neural network as a method for distinguishing chaos from noise, Journal of Physics A, 25, 843–850.

 

49.  Elsner J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1992: A note on the spatial structure of the covariability of Northern Hemispheric monthly temperature records in the last 110 years, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 137, 133–146.

 

50.  Elsner J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1992: Nonlinear prediction, chaos and noise, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 73, 49–60.

 

51.  Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1991: Fractal properties of rain in the time domain and Taylor’s hypothesis, Meteorology and Hydrology, 2, 98–103.

 

52.  Elsner J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1991: Do bidecadal oscillations exist in the global temperature record? Nature, 353, 551–553.

 

53.  Tsonis, A. A., J. B. Elsner, & P. A. Tsonis, 1991: Periodicity in DNA coding sequences: Implications in gene evolution, Journal of Theoretical Biology, 151, 323–331.

 

54.  Elsner J. B., & A. A. Tsonis, 1991: Comparisons of observed Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature records, Geophysical Research Letters, 18, 1229–1232.

 

55.  Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1991: Multiple fractal dimensions in snow, Atmospheric Research, 26, 1–5.

 

56.  Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1990: Multiple attractors, fractal basins and longterm climate dynamics, Atmospheric Physics, 63, 171–176.

 

57.  Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1990: Comments on “Dimension analysis of climatic data," Journal of Climate, 3, 1502–1505.

 

58.  Elsner J. B., W. H. Drag, & J. K. Last, 1989: Synoptic weather patterns associated with the Milwaukee, Wisconsin flash flood of 6 August 1986, Weather and Forecasting, 4, 537–554.

 

59.  Elsner J. B., J. R. Mecikalski, & A. A. Tsonis, 1989: A shore-parallel cloud band over Lake Michigan, Monthly Weather Review, 117, 2822–2823.

 

60.  Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1989: Testing the global warming hypothesis, Geophysical Research Letters, 16, 795–797.

 

61.  Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1989: Chaos, strange attractors and the weather, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 70, 16–23.

 

62.  Tsonis, A. A., J. B. Elsner, & P. A. Tsonis, 1989: On the dynamics of a forced reaction-diffusion model for biological pattern formation, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA, 86, 4938–4942.

 

63.  Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1988: The weather attractor over very short-time scales, Nature, 333, 545–547.

 

64.  Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1987: Fractal characterization and simulation of lightning, Atmospheric Physics, 60, 187–192.

 

65.  Sikdar, D. N., & J. B. Elsner, 1987: Large-scale circulation departures related to wet episodes in Northeast Brazil, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 113, 567–580.

 

66.  Sikdar, D. N., & J. B. Elsner, 1987: Intra-seasonal variability of rainfall and atmospheric energetics over Northeast Brazil during the rainy season of 1979, Tellus A, 39, 49–60.

 

Refereed Books

• Hurricanes of the North Atlantic: Climate and Society, J. B. Elsner and A. B. Kara, Oxford University Press, 1999. 496 pp.

 

• Singular Spectrum Analysis: A New Tool in Time Series Analysis, J. B. Elsner and A. A. Tsonis, Plenum, 1996, 164 pp.

 

Book Chapters

 

• Elsner, J. B., & B. H. Bossak, 2001: “Changes in hurricane landfall probabilities in response to variations in climate", in Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Future, R. Murnane & K.-b. Liu, Eds., Columbia University Press.

 

• Tsonis, A. A., & J. B. Elsner, 1992: “What do data analyses tell us about the variability of global temperature?" Chapter 3, Section I, in A Global Warming Forum: Scientific, Economic, and Legal Overview, R. A. Geyer, Editor, CRC Press.

 

• Elsner, J. B., 1991: “Predicting time series using a neural network as a method of distinguishing chaos from noise.", in Artificial Neural Networks: Proceedings of the 1991 International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks (ICANN–91), T. Kohonen, K. Mδkisara, O. Simula, & J. Kangas, Eds., North Holland.

 

Published Book Reviews

• Chaos and Determinism: Turbulence as a Paradigm for Complex Systems Converging Toward Final States, by A. Favre, H. Guitton, J. Guitton, A. Lichnerowicz, & E. Wolff, translated by B. E. Schwarzbach, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 76, 1824–1825 (1995).

 

• The Essence of Chaos, by E. N. Lorenz, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 75, 862–864 (1994).

 

• Non-Linear Variability in Geophysics: Scaling and Fractals, edited by S. Lovejoy & D. Schertzer, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 73, 645–646 (1992).

 

• From Cardinals to Chaos: Reflections on the Life and Legacy of S. Ulam, edited by N. G. Cooper, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 72, 1554–1556 (1991).

 

REPORTS, TECHNICAL MEMOS, ETC

 

• Gordon, R. T., A. Boissonnade, & J. B. Elsner, 2000: A track classification of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. Report to Risk Management Solutions of Menlo Park, CA. 28pp.

 

• Elsner J. B., & A. B. Kara, 1997: Hurricane return periods along the Gulf Coast and Florida, NOAA Tech. Memo., NWS SR-192.

 

• Elsner J. B., 1996: A probabilistic model of the number of intense Atlantic basin hurricanes for the 1996 season. NOAA Tech. Attach., NWS SR/SSD96-12.

 

• Drag, W. H., J. B. Elsner, & J. K. Last, 1987: Pattern recognition and the Milwaukee flash flood of August 6, 1986, NOAA Tech. Attach., NWS CR87-15.

 

• Elsner, J. B., P. J. Elsner, & J. K. Last, 1986: Milwaukee’s bulletin board system, American Weather Observer, 3, 10.

 

SESSION CONVENOR

• European Geophysical Society XXI General Assembly, The Hague, Netherlands, 6–10 May, 1996, Quantifying Predictability, with M. K. Davey, M. Allen, and T. Opsteegh.

 

INVITED LECTURES

• AAAS meeting, Washington, DC, February, 2000

• SUS hurricane meeting, Miami, FL, November, 1999

• Re-insurance industry meeting, Hamilton, Bermuda, May, 1999

• Caribbean Meteorological Institute, Barbados, April, 1999

• National Hurricane Conference, Orlando, FL, April, 1999

• Global Hydrology and Climate Center, Huntsville, AL, March, 1999

• National Hurricane Conference, Norfolk, VA, April, 1998

• Aon Reinsurance Meeting, Chicago, IL, June, 1997

• Re-insurance industry meeting, Hamilton, Bermuda, December, 1996

• Seminar on Catastrophe Issues, Keynote address, St. Petersburg, April, 1996

• Bermuda Biological Station for Research, Bermuda, September, 1995

• NWSFO, Anchorage, June, 1993

• European Geophysical Society XVIII General Assembly, Wiesbaden, May, 1993

• Clark-Atlanta University, Atlanta, October, 1991

• Bulgarian Institute of Nuclear Physics, Sofia, June, 1991

• Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, June, 1991

• AMS-West Central Illinois Chapter, Peoria, March 1990

• University of Dayton, Dayton, March, 1990

• Milwaukee Area Technical College, Milwaukee, April, 1988

 

FORMAL COURSES TAUGHT

 

• Graduate/Undergraduate level: Synoptic Meteorology Lecture/Laboratory, Mesometeorology Laboratory, Computational Methods in Atmospheric Science, Statistical Weather and Climate Prediction, Data Analysis and Statistics in Meteorology, Atmospheric Thermodynamics, Hurricanes and Society, Quantitative Geography, Advanced Quantitative Geography

 

• Undergraduate level: Survey of Meteorology, Tornadic Storms, General Meteorology, Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology, Current Weather Discussion, Physical Geography