Books

Elsner, J. B. and T. H. Jagger (2013). Hurricane Climatology: A Modern Statistical Guide Using R. Oxford University Press, USA. ISBN: 9780199827633.

Elsner, J. B. and A. B. Kara (1999). Hurricanes of the North Atlantic: Climate and Society. Oxford University Press, USA. ISBN: 0195125088.

Elsner, J. B. and A. A. Tsonis (1996). Singular Spectrum Analysis: A New Tool in Time Series Analysis. Springer, USA. ISBN: 9781475725148.

Journal Articles

2018

Yang, S, N. Kang, J. B. Elsner and Y. Chun (2018). “Influence of global warming on western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensities during 2015”. In: Journal of Climate XX, pp. xx-xx.

2017

Fricker, T, J. B. Elsner and T. H. Jagger (2017). “Population and energy elasticity of tornado casualties”. In: Geophysical Research Letters 44, pp. 3941-3949. DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073093. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/FrickerElsnerJagger2017.pdf.

Fricker, T, J. B. Elsner, V. Mesev and T. H. Jagger (2017). “A dasymetric method to spatially apportion tornado casualty counts”. In: Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk 8, pp. 1767-1782. DOI: 10.1080/19475705.2017.1386724. eprint: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2017.1386724. URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2017.1386724.

Humphreys, J, J. B. Elsner, T. H. Jagger and A. Mahjoor (2017). “Disaggregating the patchwork: Probabilistic models as tools to predict wetland presence as a continuous gradient”. In: Wetlands 37, pp. 205-219. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/HumphreysElsnerJaggerMahjoor2017.pdf.

Humphreys, J, J. B. Elsner, T. H. Jagger and S. Pau (2017). “A Bayesian geostatistical approach to modeling global distributions of Lygodium microphyllum under projected climate warming”. In: Ecological Modelling 363, pp. 192-206. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/HumphreysEtAl2017.pdf.

2016

Elsner, J. B, T. Fricker, T. H. Jagger and V. Mesev (2016). “Statistical models for predicting tornado rates: Case studies from Oklahoma and the Mid South USA”. In: International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering 6, pp. 1-9. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerFrickerJaggerMesev2016.pdf.

Elsner, J. B, T. Fricker, H. M. Widen, C. M. Castillo, J. Humphreys, J. Jung, S. Rahman, A. Richard, T. H. Jagger, T. Bhatrasataponkul, et al. (2016). “The relationship between elevation roughness and tornado activity: A spatial statistical model fit to data from the central Great Plains”. In: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 55, pp. 849-859. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerEtAl2016.pdf.

Elsner, J. B, T. H. Jagger and T. Fricker (2016). “Statistical models for tornado climatology: Long and short-term views”. In: PLoS ONE 11, p. e0131090.

Fraza, E, J. B. Elsner and T. H. Jagger (2016). “A space-time statistical climate model for hurricane intensification in the North Atlantic basin”. In: Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography 2, pp. 105-114. DOI: 10.5194/ascmo-2-105-2016. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/FrazaElsnerJagger2016.pdf.

Kang, N. and J. B. Elsner (2016). “Climate mechanism for stronger typhoons in a warmer world”. In: Journal of Climate 29.3, pp. 1051-1057. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/KangElsner2016.pdf.

Kang, N, M. Lim, J. B. Elsner and D. Shin (2016). “Bayesian updating of track-forecast uncertainty for tropical cyclones”. In: Weather and Forecasting 31, pp. 626-631. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/KangLimElsnerShin2016.pdf.

Strazzo, S. E, J. B. Elsner, T. E. LaRow, H. Murakami, M. Wehner and M. Zhao (2016). “The influence of model resolution on the simulated sensitivity of North Atlantic tropical cyclone maximum intensity to sea surface temperature”. In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 8, pp. 1037-1054. DOI: 10.1002/2016MS000635.

Widen, H. M, J. B. Elsner, S. Pau and C. K. Uejio (2016). “Graphical inference in geographical research”. In: Geographical Analysis 48, pp. 115-131. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/WidenElsnerPauUejio2016.pdf.

2015

Elsner, J. B, S. C. Elsner and T. H. Jagger (2015). “The increasing efficiency of tornado days in the United States”. In: Climate Dynamics 45.3-4, pp. 651-659. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerElsnerJagger2015.pdf.

Fraza, E. and J. B. Elsner (2015). “A climatological study of the effect of sea-surface temperature on North Atlantic hurricane intensification”. In: Physical Geography 36.5, pp. 395-407. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/FrazaElsner2015.pdf.

Fricker, T. and J. B. Elsner (2015). “Kinetic energy of tornadoes in the United States”. In: PLoS ONE 10, p. e0131090. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/FrickerElsner2015.pdf.

Jagger, T. H, J. B. Elsner and H. M. Widen (2015). “A statistical model for regional tornado climate studies”. In: PLoS ONE 10.8, p. e0131876. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/JaggerElsnerWiden2015.pdf.

Kang, N. and J. B. Elsner (2015). “Trade-off between intensity and frequency of global tropical cyclones”. In: Nature Climate Change 5.7, pp. 661-664. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/KangElsner2015.pdf.

Strazzo, S, J. B. Elsner and T. LaRow (2015). “Quantifying the sensitivity of maximum, limiting, and potential tropical cyclone intensity to SST: Observations versus the FSU/COAPS global climate model”. In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 7.2, pp. 586-599.

Trepanier, J. C, H. F. Needham, J. B. Elsner and T. H. Jagger (2015). “Combining surge and wind risk from hurricanes using a copula model: an example from Galveston, Texas”. In: The Professional Geographer 67.1, pp. 52-61.

Walsh, K. J, S. J. Camargo, G. A. Vecchi, A. S. Daloz, J. B. Elsner, K. Emanuel, M. Horn, Y. Lim, M. Roberts, C. Patricola, et al. (2015). “Hurricanes and climate: the US CLIVAR working group on hurricanes”. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 96.6, pp. 997-1017.

Widen, H. M, T. Fricker and J. B. Elsner (2015). “New methods in tornado climatology”. In: Geography Compass 9.4, pp. 157-168. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/WidenFrickerElsner2015.pdf.

2014

Elsner, J. B, T. H. Jagger and I. J. Elsner (2014). “Tornado intensity estimated from damage path dimensions”. In: PLoS ONE 9.9, p. e107571. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJaggerElsner2014.pdf.

Elsner, J. B, T. H. Jagger, H. M. Widen and D. R. Chavas (2014). “Daily tornado frequency distributions in the United~States”. In: Environmental Research Letters 9.2, p. 024018. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJaggerWidenChavas2014.pdf.

Elsner, J. B. and H. M. Widen (2014). “Predicting spring tornado activity in the central Great Plains by 1 March”. In: Monthly Weather Review 142.1, pp. 259-267. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerWiden2014.pdf.

Fraza, E. and J. B. Elsner (2014). “A spatial climatology of North Atlantic hurricane intensity change”. In: International Journal of Climatology 34.9, pp. 2918-2924. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/FrazaElsner2014.pdf.

Fricker, T, J. B. Elsner, P. Camp and T. H. Jagger (2014). “Empirical estimates of kinetic energy from some recent U.S. tornadoes”. In: Geophysical Research Letters 41, pp. 4340-4346. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/FrickerElsnerCampJagger2014.pdf.

Hodges, R. E, T. H. Jagger and J. B. Elsner (2014). “The sun-hurricane connection: Diagnosing the solar impacts on hurricane frequency over the North Atlantic basin using a space-time model”. In: Natural Hazards 73.2, pp. 1063-1084. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/HodgesJaggerElsner2014.pdf.

2013

Das, O, Y. Wang, J. Donoghue, X. Xu, J. Coor, J. Elsner and Y. Xu (2013). “Reconstruction of paleostorms and paleoenvironment using geochemical proxies archived in the sediments of two coastal lakes in northwest Florida”. In: Quaternary Science Reviews 68, pp. 142-153.

Elsner, J. B, L. E. Michaels, K. N. Scheitlin and I. J. Elsner (2013). “The decreasing population bias in tornado reports”. In: Weather, Climate, and Society 5, pp. 221-232. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerMichaelsScheitlinElsner2013.pdf.

Elsner, J. B, R. J. Murnane, T. H. Jagger and H. M. Widen (2013). “A spatial point process model for violent tornado occurrence in the U.S. Great Plains”. In: Mathematical Geosciences 45, pp. 667-679. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerMurnaneJaggerWiden2013.pdf.

Elsner, J. B, S. E. Strazzo, T. H. Jagger, T. LaRow and M. Zhao (2013). “Sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to SST in the Atlantic from observations and GCMs”. In: Journal of Climate 26.16, pp. 5949-5957. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerStrazzoJaggerLaRowZhao2013.pdf.

Scheitlin, K. N, V. Mesev and J. B. Elsner (2013). “Polyline averaging using distance surfaces: A spatial hurricane climatology”. In: Computers & Geosciences 52, pp. 126-131. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ScheitlinMesevElsner2013.pdf.

Smith, E, H. Leung, J. B. Elsner, A. Mehta, G. Tripoli, D. Casella, S. Dietrich, A. Mugnai, G. Panegrossi and P. Sanò (2013). “Transitioning from CRD to CDRD in Bayesian retrieval of rainfall from satellite passive microwave measurements: Part 3-Identification of optimal meteorological tags”. In: Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci 13, pp. 1185-1208.

Strazzo, S, J. B. Elsner, T. LaRow, D. J. Halperin and M. Zhao (2013). “Observed versus GCM-generated local tropical cyclone frequency: Comparisons using a spatial lattice”. In: Journal of Climate 26.21, pp. 8257-8268. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/StrazzoElsnerLaRowHalperinZhao2013.pdf.

Strazzo, S, J. B. Elsner, J. C. Trepanier and K. A. Emanuel (2013). “Frequency, intensity, and sensitivity to sea surface temperature of North Atlantic tropical cyclones in best-track and simulated data”. In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems 5.3, pp. 500-509. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/StrazzoElsnerTrepanierEmanuel2013.pdf.

Strikas, O. M. and J. B. Elsner (2013). “Enhanced cloud-to-ground lightning frequency in the vicinity of coal plants and highways in Northern Georgia, USA”. In: Atmospheric Science Letters 14.4, pp. 243-248.

Widen, H. M, J. B. Elsner, R. B. Cruz, G. Xing, E. Fraza, L. Migliorelli, S. Strazzo, C. Amrine, B. Mulholland, M. Patterson, et al. (2013). “Adjusted tornado probabilities”. In: Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology 8, pp. 1-12. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/WidenEtAl2013.pdf.

2012

Elsner, J. B, R. E. Hodges and T. H. Jagger (2012a). “Spatial grids for hurricane climate research”. In: Climate Dynamics 39.1, pp. 21-36. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerHodgesJagger2012.pdf.

Elsner, J. B, R. E. Hodges and T. H. Jagger (2012b). “Spatial grids for hurricane climate research”. In: Climate dynamics 39.1-2, pp. 21-36. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerHodgesJagger2012.pdf.

Elsner, J. B, J. C. Trepanier, S. E. Strazzo and T. H. Jagger (2012). “Sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to ocean warmth”. In: Geophysical Research Letters 39.17. ISSN: 1944-8007. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerTrepanierStrazzoJagger2012.pdf.

Hodges, R. E. and J. B. Elsner (2012). “The spatial pattern of the sun-hurricane connection across the North Atlantic”. In: ISRN Meteorology 2012, pp. 1-12. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/HodgesElsner2012.pdf.

Hodges, R. E, J. B. Elsner and T. H. Jagger (2012). “Predictive models for time to acceptance: An example using “hurricane” articles in AMS journals”. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93.6, pp. 879-882. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/HodgesElsnerJagger2012.pdf.

Jagger, T. H. and J. B. Elsner (2012). “Hurricane clusters in the vicinity of Florida”. In: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 51.5, pp. 869-877. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/JaggerElsner2012.pdf.

Kang, N. and J. B. Elsner (2012a). “An empirical framework for tropical cyclone climatology”. In: Climate Dynamics 39.3-4, pp. 669-680. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/KangElsner2012.pdf.

Kang, N. and J. B. Elsner (2012b). “Consensus on climate trends in western North Pacific tropical cyclones”. In: Journal of Climate 25.21, pp. 7564-7573. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/KangElsner2012.pdf.

Murnane, R. J. and J. B. Elsner (2012). “Maximum wind speeds and US hurricane losses”. In: Geophysical Research Letters 39.16. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/MurnaneElsner2012.pdf.

2011

Convertino, M, J. B. Elsner, R. Muñoz-Carpena, G. A. Kiker, C. J. Martinez, R. A. Fischer and I. Linkov (2011). “Do tropical cyclones shape shorebird habitat patterns? Biogeoclimatology of snowy plovers in Florida”. In: PloS ONE 6.1, p. e15683. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ConvertinoEtAl2011.pdf.

Elsner, J. B, S. W. Lewers, J. C. Malmstadt and T. H. Jagger (2011). “Estimating contemporary and future wind-damage losses from hurricanes affecting Eglin air force base, Florida”. In: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 50.7, pp. 1514-1526. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerLewersMalmstadtJagger2011.pdf.

Jagger, T. H, J. B. Elsner and R. K. Burch (2011). “Climate and solar signals in property damage losses from hurricanes affecting the United States”. In: Natural Hazards 58.1, pp. 541-557. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/JaggerElsnerBurch2011.pdf.

Scheitlin, K. N, J. B. Elsner, S. W. Lewers, J. C. Malmstadt and T. H. Jagger (2011). “Risk assessment of hurricane winds for Eglin air force base in northwestern Florida, USA”. In: Theoretical and applied climatology 105.3-4, pp. 287-296. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ScheitlinElsnerLewersMalmstadtJagger2011.pdf.

2010

Elsner, J. B, T. Jagger and R. Hodges (2010). “Daily tropical cyclone intensity response to solar ultraviolet radiation”. In: Geophysical Research Letters 37.9. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJaggerHodges2010.pdf.

Hodges, R. E. and J. B. Elsner (2010). “Evidence linking solar variability with US hurricanes”. In: International Journal of Climatology 31.13, pp. 1897-1907. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/HodgesElsner2010.pdf.

Jagger, T. H. and J. B. Elsner (2010). “A consensus model for seasonal hurricane prediction”. In: Journal of Climate 23.22, pp. 6090-6099. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/JaggerElsner2010b.pdf.

Malmstadt, J. C, J. B. Elsner and T. H. Jagger (2010). “Risk of strong hurricane winds to Florida cities”. In: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 49.10, pp. 2121-2132. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/MalmstadtElsnerJagger2010.pdf.

Scheitlin, K. N, J. B. Elsner, J. Malmstadt, R. Hodges and T. Jagger (2010). “Toward increased utilization of historical hurricane chronologies”. In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 115.D3, p. D3108. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ScheitlinElsnerMalmstadtHodgesJagger2010.pdf.

2009

Elsner, J. B, R. K. Burch and T. H. Jagger (2009). “Catastrophe finance: An emerging discipline”. In: Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 90.33, pp. 281-282. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerBurchJagger2009.pdf.

Elsner, J. B, T. Jagger and E. Fogarty (2009). “Visibility network of United States hurricanes”. In: Geophysical Research Letters 36.16. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJaggerFogarty2009.pdf.

Jagger, T. H. and J. B. Elsner (2009). “Modeling tropical cyclone intensity with quantile regression”. In: International Journal of Climatology 29.10, pp. 1351-1361.

Kara, A. B. and J. B. Elsner (2009). “Characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer for coastal and inland locations around the Gulf of Mexico”. In: Atmósfera 12.1, pp. 1-13.

Kara, A. B, R. W. Helber, T. P. Boyer and J. B. Elsner (2009). “Mixed layer depth in the Aegean, Marmara, Black and Azov Seas: Part I: general features”. In: Journal of Marine Systems 78, pp. S169-S180.

Malmstadt, J, K. Scheitlin and J. B. Elsner (2009). “Florida hurricanes and damage costs”. In: Southeastern Geographer 49.2, pp. 108-131. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/MalmstadtScheitlinElsner2009.pdf.

2008

Elsner, J. B. and T. Jagger (2008a). “United States and Caribbean tropical cyclone activity related to the solar cycle”. In: Geophysical Research Letters 35.18. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJagger2008.pdf.

Elsner, J. B. and T. H. Jagger (2008b). “Hurricanes and climate change”. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 89.5, pp. 677-680.

Elsner, J. B, T. H. Jagger, M. Dickinson and D. Rowe (2008). “Improving multiseason forecasts of North Atlantic hurricane activity”. In: Journal of Climate 21.6, pp. 1209-1219. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJaggerDickensonRowe2008.pdf.

Elsner, J. B, T. H. Jagger and K. Liu (2008). “Comparison of hurricane return levels using historical and geological records”. In: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 47.2, pp. 368-374. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJaggerLiu2008.pdf.

Elsner, J. B, J. P. Kossin and T. H. Jagger (2008). “The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones”. In: Nature 455.7209, pp. 92-95. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerKossinJagger2008.pdf.

2007

Elsner, J. B. (2007a). “Climatology: Tempests in time”. In: Nature 447.7145, pp. 647-649. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/Elsner2007.pdf.

Elsner, J. B. (2007b). “Granger causality and Atlantic hurricanes”. In: Tellus A 59.4, pp. 476-485. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/Elsner2007.pdf.

2006

Elsner, J. B. (2006). “Evidence in support of the climate change-Atlantic hurricane hypothesis”. In: Geophysical Research Letters 33.16. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/Elsner2006.pdf.

Elsner, J. B. and T. H. Jagger (2006a). “Comparison of hindcasts anticipating the 2004 Florida hurricane season”. In: Weather and Forecasting 21.2, pp. 182-192. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJagger2006.pdf.

Elsner, J. B. and T. H. Jagger (2006b). “Prediction models for annual US hurricane counts”. In: Journal of Climate 19.12, pp. 2935-2952. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJagger2006a.pdf.

Elsner, J. B, T. Jagger and A. Tsonis (2006). “Estimated return periods for Hurricane Katrina”. In: Geophysical Research Letters 33.8. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJaggerTsonis2006.pdf.

Elsner, J. B, R. J. Murnane and T. H. Jagger (2006). “Forecasting US hurricanes 6 months in advance”. In: Geophysical Research Letters 33.10. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerMurnaneJagger2006.pdf.

Elsner, J. B, A. A. Tsonis and T. H. Jagger (2006). “High-frequency variability in hurricane power dissipation and its relationship to global temperature”. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 87.6, p. 763. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerTsonisJagger2006.pdf.

Fogarty, E. A, J. B. Elsner, T. H. Jagger, K. Liu and K. Louie (2006). “Variations in typhoon landfalls over China”. In: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 23.5, pp. 665-677. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/FogartyElsnerJaggerLiuLouie2006.pdf.

Jagger, T. H. and J. B. Elsner (2006). “Climatology models for extreme hurricane winds near the United States”. In: Journal of Climate 19.13, pp. 3220-3236. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/JaggerElsner2006.pdf.

2005

Tsonis, A, J. B. Elsner, A. Hunt and T. Jagger (2005). “Unfolding the relation between global temperature and ENSO”. In: Geophysical Research Letters 32.9.

2004

Bossak, B. H. and J. B. Elsner (2004). “Plotting early nineteenth century hurricane information”. In: Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union 85, pp. 1-5. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/BossakElsner2004.pdf.

Elsner, J. B. and T. H. Jagger (2004). “A hierarchical Bayesian approach to seasonal hurricane modeling”. In: Journal of Climate 17.14, pp. 2813-2827. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJagger2004.pdf.

Elsner, J. B, X. Niu and T. H. Jagger (2004). “Detecting shifts in hurricane rates using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach”. In: Journal of Climate 17.13, pp. 2652-2666. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerNiuJagger2004.pdf.

2003

Elsner, J. B. (2003). “Tracking hurricanes”. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84.3, p. 353. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/Elsner2003.pdf.

Elsner, J. B. and K. Liu (2003). “Examining the ENSO-typhoon hypothesis”. In: Climate Research 25.1, pp. 43-54. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerLiu2003.pdf.

Niu, X, I. W. McKeague and J. B. Elsner (2003). “Seasonal space-time models for climate systems”. In: Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes 6.2, pp. 111-133. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/NiuMcKeagueElsner2003.pdf.

Tsonis, A, A. Hunt and J. B. Elsner (2003). “On the relation between ENSO and global climate change”. In: Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 84.3-4, pp. 229-242. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/TsonisHuntElsner2003.pdf.

2002

Jagger, T. H, X. Niu and J. B. Elsner (2002). “A space-time model for seasonal hurricane prediction”. In: International Journal of Climatology 22.4, pp. 451-465. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/JaggerNiuElsner2002.pdf.

2001

Arguez, A. and J. B. Elsner (2001). “Trends in US tropical cyclone mortality during the past century”. In: Florida Geographer 32, pp. 28-37.

Elsner, J. B. and B. H. Bossak (2001a). “Bayesian analysis of US hurricane climate”. In: Journal of Climate 14.23, pp. 4341-4350. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerBossak2001.pdf.

Elsner, J. B. and B. H. Bossak (2001b). “Bayesian analysis of US hurricane climate”. In: Journal of Climate 14.23, pp. 4341-4350. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerBossak2001.pdf.

Elsner, J. B, B. H. Bossak and X. Niu (2001). “Secular changes to the ENSO-US hurricane relationship”. In: Geophysical Research Letters 28.21, pp. 4123-4126. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerBossakNiu2001.pdf.

Elsner, J. B. and S. Kavlakov (2001). “Hurricane intensity changes associated with geomagnetic variation”. In: Atmospheric Science Letters 2.1-4, pp. 86-93. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerKavlakov2001.pdf.

Jagger, T, J. B. Elsner and X. Niu (2001). “A dynamic probability model of hurricane winds in coastal counties of the United States”. In: Journal of Applied Meteorology 40.5, pp. 853-863. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/JaggerElsnerNiu2001.pdf.

2000

Carter, M. M, J. B. Elsner and S. Bennett (2000). “A quantitative precipitation forecast experiment for Puerto Rico”. In: Journal of Hydrology 239.1, pp. 162-178. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/CarterElsnerBennett2000.pdf.

Elsner, J. B, T. Jagger and X. Niu (2000). “Changes in the rates of North Atlantic major hurricane activity during the 20 th century”. In: Geophysical Research Letters 27.12, pp. 1743-1746. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerJaggerNiu2000.pdf.

Elsner, J. B. and B. Kocher (2000). “Global tropical cyclone activity: A link to the North Atlantic Oscillation”. In: Geophysical Research Letters 27, pp. 129-132. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerKocher2000.pdf.

Elsner, J. B, K. Liu and B. Kocher (2000). “Spatial variations in major US hurricane activity: Statistics and a physical mechanism”. In: Journal of Climate 13.13, pp. 2293-2305. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerLiuKocher2000.pdf.

Mumane, R. J, C. Barton, E. Collins, J. Donnelly, J. B. Elsner, K. Emanuel, I. Ginis, S. Howard, C. Landsea, K. Liu, et al. (2000). “Model estimates hurricane wind speed probabilities”. In: Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 81.38, pp. 433-438.

1999

Elsner, J. B, A. Kara and M. Owens (1999). “Fluctuations in North Atlantic hurricane frequency”. In: Journal of Climate 12.2, pp. 427-437. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerKaraOwens1999.pdf.

Tsonis, A. and J. B. Elsner (1999). “The autocorrelation function and human influences on climate”. In: science 285.5427, pp. 495-495.

Tsonis, A, P. Roebber and J. B. Elsner (1999). “Long-range correlations in the extratropical atmospheric circulation: origins and implications”. In: Journal of Climate 12.5, pp. 1534-1541.

1998

Bove, M. C, J. J. O’Brien, J. B. Elsner, C. W. Landsea and X. Niu (1998). “Effect of El Niño on US landfalling hurricanes, revisited”. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79.11, pp. 2477-2482.

Elsner, J. B, X. Niu and A. Tsonis (1998). “Multi-year prediction model of North Atlantic hurricane activity”. In: Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 68.1-2, pp. 43-51.

Kara, A. B, J. B. Elsner and P. H. Ruscher (1998a). “Numerical models of boundary layer processes over and around the Gulf of Mexico during a return-flow event”. In: Weather and Forecasting 13.4, pp. 921-933.

Kara, A. B, J. B. Elsner and P. H. Ruscher (1998b). “Physical mechanism for the Tallahassee, Florida, minimum temperature anomaly”. In: Journal of Applied Meteorology 37.1, pp. 101-113.

Kimberlain, T. B. and J. B. Elsner (1998). “The 1995 and 1996 North Atlantic hurricane seasons: A return of the tropical-only hurricane”. In: Journal of Climate 11.8, pp. 2062-2069. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/KimberlainElsner1998.pdf.

Tsonis, A. and J. B. Elsner (1998). “Comments on “The Southern Oscillation as an Example of a Simple, Ordered Subsystem of a Complex Chaotic System””. In: Journal of Climate 11.9, pp. 2453-2454.

Tsonis, A, P. Roebber and J. B. Elsner (1998). “A characteristic time scale in the global temperature record”. In: Geophysical Research Letters 25.15, pp. 2821-2823.

1997

Carter, M. and J. B. Elsner (1997). “A statistical method for forecasting rainfall over Puerto Rico”. In: Weather and Forecasting 12.3, pp. 515-525. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/CarterElsner1997.pdf.

Lehmiller, G, T. Kimberlain and J. B. Elsner (1997). “Seasonal prediction models for North Atlantic basin hurricane location”. In: Monthly Weather Review 125.8, pp. 1780-1791. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/LehmillerKimberlainElsner1997.pdf.

Roebber, P, A. Tsonis and J. B. Elsner (1997). “Do climate simulations from models forced by averaged sea surface temperatures represent actual dynamics?” In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 4.2, pp. 93-100.

Tsonis, A. A, J. B. Elsner and P. A. Tsonis (1997). “Is DNA a language?” In: Journal of Theoretical Biology 184.1, pp. 25-29.

Tsonis, A. and J. B. Elsner (1997). “Global temperature as a regulator of climate predictability”. In: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 108.1, pp. 191-196. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/TsonisElsner1997.pdf.

1996

Carter, M. M. and J. B. Elsner (1996). “Convective rainfall regions of Puerto Rico”. In: International Journal of Climatology 16.9, pp. 1033-1043.

Elsner, J. B, H. Fuelberg, R. Deal III, J. Orrock, G. Lehmiller and P. Ruscher (1996). “Tallahassee, Florida, minimum temperature anomaly: Description and speculations”. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 77.4, pp. 721-728. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerFuelbergDealOrrockLehmillerRuscher1996.pdf.

Elsner, J. B, G. Lehmiller and T. Kimberlain (1996). “Objective classification of Atlantic hurricanes”. In: Journal of Climate 9.11, pp. 2880-2889. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerLehmillerKimberlain1996.pdf.

Tsonis, A. and J. B. Elsner (1996). “Mapping the channels of communication between the tropics and higher latitudes in the atmosphere”. In: Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena 92.3, pp. 237-244.

Tsonis, A, P. Kumar, J. B. Elsner and P. Tsonis (1996). “Wavelet analysis of DNA sequences”. In: Physical Review E 53.2, p. 1828. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/TsonisKumarElsnerTsonis1996.pdf.

1995

Hess, J, J. B. Elsner and N. LaSeur (1995). “Improving seasonal hurricane predictions for the Atlantic basin”. In: Weather and Forecasting 10.2, pp. 425-432. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/HessElsnerLaSeur1995.pdf.

Triantafyllou, G, J. B. Elsner, A. Lascaratos, C. Koutitas and A. Tsonis (1995). “Structure and properties of the attractor of a marine dynamical system”. In: Mathematical and Computer Modelling 21.6, pp. 73-86.

Tsonis, A. and J. B. Elsner (1995). “Testing for scaling in natural forms and observables”. In: Journal of Statistical Physics 81.5-6, pp. 869-880.

1994

Elsner, J. B. and J. Honore (1994). “Ignoring chaos”. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 75.10, pp. 1846-1847.

Elsner, J. B. and C. Schmertmann (1994). “Assessing forecast skill through cross validation”. In: Weather and Forecasting 9.4, pp. 619-624. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerSchmertmann1994.pdf.

Elsner, J. B. and A. Tsonis (1994). “Low-frequency oscillation”. In: Nature 372, pp. 507-508.

Elsner, J. B, A. Tsonis and others (1994). “Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere”. In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 1.1, pp. 41-44.

Hess, J. and J. B. Elsner (1994a). “Extended-range hindcasts of tropical-origin Atlantic hurricane activity”. In: Geophysical research letters 21.5, pp. 365-368.

Hess, J. and J. B. Elsner (1994b). “Historical developments leading to current forecast models of annual Atlantic hurricane activity”. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 75.9, pp. 1611-1622.

Tsonis, A, G. Triantafyllou, J. B. Elsner, J. Holdzkom and A. Kirwan Jr (1994). “An investigation of the ability of nonlinear methods to infer dynamics from observables”. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 75.9, pp. 1623-1634. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/TsonisTriantafyllouElsnerHoldzhamKirwan1994.pdf.

Tsonis, A, G. Triantafyllou, J. B. Elsner and others (1994). “Searching for determinism in observed data: a review of the issues involved”. In: Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 1.1, pp. 12-25.

1993

Elsner, J. B. and C. P. Schmertmann (1993). “Improving extended-range seasonal predictions of intense Atlantic hurricane activity”. In: Weather and Forecasting 8, pp. 345-351. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerSchmertmann1993.pdf.

Elsner, J. B. and A. Tsonis (1993a). “Complexity and predictability of hourly precipitation”. In: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 50.3, pp. 400-405. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerTsonis1993.pdf.

Elsner, J. B. and A. Tsonis (1993b). “Corrigendum to “Nonlinear Prediction, Chaos, and Noise””. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 74.2, pp. 243-243.

Elsner, J. B. and A. Tsonis (1993c). “Nonlinear dynamics established in the ENSO”. In: Geophysical Research Letters 20.3, pp. 213-216. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerTsonis1993.pdf.

Tsonis, A. A, J. B. Elsner and P. A. Tsonis (1993). “On the existence of scaling in DNA sequences”. In: Biochemical and Biophysical Research Communications 197.3, pp. 1288-1295. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/TsonisElsnerTsonis1993.pdf.

Tsonis, A, J. B. Elsner and K. Georgakakos (1993). “Estimating the dimension of weather and climate attractors: important issues about the procedure and interpretation”. In: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 50.15, pp. 2549-2555. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/TsonisElsnerGeorgakakos1993.pdf.

1992

Elsner, J. B. (1992a). “A description of low-frequency atmospheric oscillations over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere using singular spectrum analysis”. In: Geophysical Research Letters 19.17, pp. 1775-1778.

Elsner, J. B. (1992b). “Predicting time series using a neural network as a method of distinguishing chaos from noise”. In: Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and General 25.4, p. 843.

Elsner, J. B. and A. Tsonis (1992). “Nonlinear prediction, chaos, and noise”. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 73.1, pp. 49-60.

Tsonis, A. and J. B. Elsner (1992a). “Nonlinear prediction as a way of distinguishing chaos from random fractal sequences”. In: Nature 358, pp. 217-220.

Tsonis, A. and J. B. Elsner (1992b). “Oscillating global temperature”. In: Nature 356, p. 751.

1991

Elsner, J. B. and A. Tsonis (1991a). “A note on the spatial structure of the covariability of observed Northern Hemisphere surface air temperatures”. In: Pure and Applied Geophysics 137.1-2, pp. 133-146.

Elsner, J. B. and A. Tsonis (1991b). “Comparisons of observed Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature records”. In: Geophysical Research Letters 18.7, pp. 1229-1232.

Elsner, J. B. and A. A. Tsonis (1991c). “Do bidecadal oscillations exist in the global temperature record?” In: Nature 353, p. 10.

Tsonis, A. A, J. B. Elsner and P. A. Tsonis (1991). “Periodicity in DNA coding sequences: implications in gene evolution”. In: Journal of Theoretical Biology 151.3, pp. 323-331.

Tsonis, A. and J. B. Elsner (1991). “Multiple fractal dimensions in snow”. In: Atmospheric Research 26.1, pp. 13-17.

1990

Tsonis, A. and J. B. Elsner (1990a). “Comments on “Dimension analysis of climatic data”. In: Journal of Climate 3.12, pp. 1502-1505. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/TsonisElsner1990.pdf.

Tsonis, A. and J. B. Elsner (1990b). “Multiple attractors, fractal basins and longterm climate dynamics”. In: Contributions to atmospheric physics 63.3-4, pp. 171-176. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/TsonisElsner1990.pdf.

1989

Elsner, J. B, W. H. Drag and J. K. Last (1989). “Synoptic weather patterns associated with the Milwaukee, Wisconsin flash flood of 6 August 1986”. In: Weather and Forecasting 4.4, pp. 537-554. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerDragLast1989.pdf.

Elsner, J. B, J. Mecikalski and A. Tsonis (1989). “A shore-parallel cloud band over Lake Michigan”. In: Monthly Weather Review 117.12, pp. 2822-2823. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/ElsnerMecikalskiTsonis1989.pdf.

Tsonis, A. A, J. B. Elsner and P. A. Tsonis (1989). “On the dynamics of a forced reaction-diffusion model for biological pattern formation”. In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 86.13, pp. 4938-4942. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/TsonisElsnerTsonis1989.pdf.

Tsonis, A. and J. B. Elsner (1989a). “Chaos, strange attractors, and weather”. In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 70.1, pp. 14-23. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/TsonisElsner1989.pdf.

Tsonis, A. and J. B. Elsner (1989b). “Testing the global warming hypothesis”. In: Geophysical Research Letters 16.8, pp. 795-797. URL: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/PDF/Research/TsonisElsner1989.pdf.

1988

Tsonis, A. and J. B. Elsner (1988). “The weather attractor over very short timescales”. In: Nature 333, pp. 545-547.

1987

Sikdar, D. N. and J. B. Elsner (1987a). “Intra-seasonal variability of rainfall and atmospheric energetics over northeast Brazil during the rainy season of 1979”. In: Tellus A 39.1, pp. 49-60.

Sikdar, D. N. and J. B. Elsner (1987b). “Large-scale circulation departures related to wet episodes in North-East Brazil”. In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 113.476, pp. 567-580.

Tsonis, A. and J. B. Elsner (1987). “Fractal characterization and simulation of lightning”. In: Beiträge zur Physik der Atmosphäre 60, pp. 187-192.