Professor Emeritus, Florida State University
Throughout my academic career, I have sought to understand the
complex relationships between climate variability, extreme weather
events, and societal impacts. My work spans statistical modeling of
tropical cyclones and tornadoes, applications of nonlinear dynamics and
chaos theory in atmospheric science, and new approaches to hurricane
risk assessment under a changing climate.
This summary highlights the major threads of my research, organized
by themes that have evolved over time, each anchored by well-cited
publications that have shaped the field and influenced policy
discussions.
Climate Change and Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Frequency
A central focus of my research program has been to quantify how
climate change is altering tropical cyclones (TCs), especially changes
in the intensity distribution of the most powerful storms.
- Landmark evidence of intensification:
- The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones
(Elsner, Kossin, Jagger, 2008, Nature, 1458
citations) demonstrated, using quantile regression, that while
mean intensity changes were modest, the most extreme storms have been
growing stronger. This study has been cited by both IPCC AR5 and
AR6.
- Intensity-frequency trade-off:
- With Kang (2015, Nature Climate Change, 123
citations), we revealed that increases in intensity are
accompanied by reductions in TC frequency. Fewer storms may form, but
those that do have a higher chance of becoming severe.
- ENSO influences:
- Earlier, Bove et al. (1998, BAMS, 445
citations) revisited how El Niño impacts U.S. landfalls.
Elsner, Bossak & Niu (2001, GRL, 152
citations) documented secular changes in this
relationship.
- Western North Pacific:
- Kang & Elsner (2016, J Climate, 54
citations) linked stronger typhoons to climate mechanisms,
reinforcing global concerns about intensification.
Statistical and Bayesian Models for Hurricane Climatology and
Risk
Another major pillar of my work has been developing advanced
statistical models for hurricane climatology and practical risk
estimation.
- Seasonal prediction frameworks:
- With Jagger, we built models for annual U.S. hurricane counts (2006,
J Climate, 209 citations) and for extreme
hurricane winds (2006, 232 citations), providing
probabilistic forecasts that directly inform engineering and
insurance.
- Bayesian modeling:
- Our 2004 paper (Elsner & Jagger, J Climate, 154
citations) introduced hierarchical Bayesian approaches for
seasonal TC prediction. Earlier groundwork with Bossak (2001, J
Climate, 114 citations) laid foundations for
Bayesian analysis of hurricane climate.
- Applications to risk:
- Malmstadt, Elsner & Jagger (2010, J Appl Meteor
Climatol, 67 citations) examined city-level risks,
while Murnane & Elsner (2012, GRL, 122
citations) explored maximum wind speeds and insured
losses.
Nonlinear Dynamics, Chaos, and Complex Systems in Atmospheric
Science
Early in my career, I contributed foundational work applying
nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory to atmospheric problems.
- Attractors in weather systems:
- With Tsonis, we published influential studies in Nature
(1988, 318 citations; 1992, 275
citations) showing that atmospheric data exhibit properties of
chaotic attractors.
- Extended this in BAMS (Elsner & Tsonis, 1992,
240 citations; Tsonis & Elsner, 1989, 164
citations).
- Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA):
- Our book Singular Spectrum Analysis: A New Tool in Time Series
Analysis (1996/2013, 1015 citations) became a
seminal reference for extracting oscillatory modes and trends.
- Related work on dimension estimates (Tsonis, Elsner &
Georgakakos, 1993, J Atmos Sci, 144
citations).
These contributions helped establish SSA and nonlinear time series
analysis as standard in climate research.
Hurricanes and Society: Damage, Losses, and Risk Communication
I have also sought to connect hurricane science directly to societal
impacts.
- Book on climate and society:
- Hurricanes of the North Atlantic: Climate and Society
(Elsner & Kara, 1999, OUP, 405 citations) offered
one of the first comprehensive treatments of how hurricane risk
intersects with vulnerability and economic development.
- Empirical damage studies:
- With Malmstadt, Scheitlin & Jagger (2009, Southeast
Geographer, 113 citations), we analyzed Florida
hurricane damage costs, influencing local planning and insurance
discussions.
Tornado Climatology: Intensity, Frequency, and Casualties
Building on my hurricane expertise, I expanded into tornado
climatology.
- Increasingly powerful tornadoes:
- Elsner, Fricker & Schroder (2019, GRL, 52
citations) documented trends toward stronger tornadoes.
- Earlier, Elsner, Elsner & Jagger (2015, Climate
Dynamics, 129 citations) showed tornado days are
becoming more efficient at producing strong events.
- Spatial risk and casualties:
- Fricker & Elsner (2020, J Appl Meteor Climatol,
26 citations) linked tornado risk with topography and
settlement patterns.
- Widen, Fricker & Elsner (2018, Geography Compass,
11 citations) advanced methods for spatially assessing
casualties.
Solar, Geomagnetic, and External Influences on Storms
Another dimension of my research explores how external forcings
influence storm activity.
- Solar cycles:
- Elsner & Jagger (2008, GRL, 75
citations) showed a link between U.S. hurricane activity and
the solar cycle.
- Hodges & Elsner (2012, Int J Climatol, 43
citations) found sunspot variability impacts hurricane
frequency.
- Geomagnetic effects:
- Elsner & Kavlakov (2001, Atmos Sci Lett, 46
citations) explored how geomagnetic variations may modulate
hurricane intensification.
Broader Impacts: Methods, Teaching, and Field Shaping
A unifying feature of my work is advancing new methods for climate
analysis.
- Forecast skill:
- Elsner & Schmertmann (1994, Weather & Forecasting,
180 citations) provided a standard approach for
evaluating prediction models via cross-validation.
- Granger causality:
- I introduced it into hurricane climatology (2007, Tellus,
82 citations).
- SSA book and workshops:
- My widely used SSA monograph and teaching helped establish rigorous
statistical approaches across climate science.
Conclusion
Over more than three decades, my research has advanced understanding
of how climate change reshapes extreme weather and how society must
adapt. From pioneering nonlinear approaches to leading studies cited by
the IPCC, my work bridges fundamental science and practical risk
management.