Hurricane & Tornado Climate Studies
Predicting spring tornado activity in the Central Great Plains by 1 March, Monthly Weather Review, v142, xxx-xxx, in the press.
Observed versus GCM-generated local tropical cyclone frequency: Comparisons using a spatial lattice, Journal of Climate, v26, 8257-8268, November 2013.
Sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to SST in the Atlantic from observations and GCMs , Journal of Climate, v26, 5949-5957, August 2013.
Frequency, intensity, and sensitivity to sea surface temperature of North Atlantic tropical cyclones in best-track and simulated data, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, v5, 1-10, doi:10.1002/jame.20036, August 2013.
The decreasing population bias in tornado reports across the Central Plains, Weather, Climate, and Society, v5, 221-232, July 2013.
A spatial point process model for violent tornado occurrence in the US Great Plains, Mathematical Geosciences, doi:10.1007/s11004-013-9458-1, 2013.
Polyline averaging using distance surfaces: A spatial hurricane climatology, Computers & Geosciences, v52, 126-131, 2013.
Consensus on climate trends in western North Pacific tropical cyclones, Journal of Climate, v25, 7564-7573, November 2012.
The spatial pattern of the sun-hurricane connection across the North Atlantic, ISRN Meteorology, v2012, doi:10.5402/2012/517962, November 2012.
Sensitivity of limiting hurricane intensity to ocean warmth, Geophysical Research Letters, v39, L17702, doi:10.1029/2012GL053002, September 2012.
Maximum wind speeds and US hurricane losses, Geophysical Research Letters, v39, L16707, doi:10.1029/2012GL052740, August 2012.
An empirical framework for tropical cyclone climatology, Climate Dynamics, v39, 669-680, March 2012.
Risk assessment of hurricane winds for Eglin air force base in northwestern Florida, USA, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, v105, 287-296, November 2011.
Spatial grids for hurricane climate research, Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1066-5, August 2011.
Estimating contemporary and future wind-damage losses from hurricanes affecting Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, v50, 1514-1526, July 2011.
Climate and solar signals in property damage losses from hurricanes affecting the United States, Natural Hazards, v58(1), 541-557, doi:10.1007/s11069-010-9685-4, January 2011.
Do tropical cyclones shape shorebird habitat patterns? Biogeoclimatology of Snowy Plovers in Florida, PLoS ONE, v6(1), 1-9, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0015683, January 2011.
A consensus model for seasonal hurricane prediction, Journal of Climate, v23, 6090-6099, November 2010.
Risk of strong hurricane winds to Florida cities, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, v49, 2121-2132, October 2010.
Evidence linking solar variability with US hurricanes, International Journal of Climatology, doi:10.1002/joc.2196, July 2010.
Discussion on "Public hurricane evaluation models: Predicting losses of residential structures in the state of Florida" by S. Hamid et al., Statistical Methodology, v7, 574-576, June 2010.
Daily tropical cyclone intensity response to solar ultraviolet radiation, Geophysical Research Letters, v37, L09701, doi:10/1029/2010GL043091, May 2010.
Towards increased utilization of historical hurricane chronologies, Journal of Geophysical Research, v115, D03108, doi:10/1029/2009JD012424, February 2010.
Catastrophe finance: An emerging discipline, EOS, Transactions, AGU, v90, August 18, 2009.
Visibility network of United States hurricanes, Geophysical Research Letters, v36, L16702, doi:10.1029/2009GL039129, August 2009.
Florida hurricanes and damage costs, Southeastern Geographer, v49, 108-131, Summer 2009.
Modeling tropical cyclone intensity with quantile regression, International Journal of Climatology, doi:10.1002/joc.1804, December 2008.
The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones, Nature, v455, 92-95, September 2008.
United States and Caribbean tropical cyclone activity related to the solar cycle, Geophysical Research Letters, v35, L18705, doi:10.1029/2008/GL034431, September 2008.
Improving multiseason forecasts of North Atlantic hurricane activity, Journal of Climate, v21, 1209-1219, March 2008.
Comparison of hurricane return levels using historical and geological records, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, v47, 368-374, February 2008.
Forecasting U.S. insured hurricane losses, in Climate Extremes and Society, Cambridge University Press, 189-208, 2008.
Granger causality and Atlantic hurricanes, Tellus, v59A, 476-485, doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00244.x, July 2007.
Climatology: Tempests in time, Nature, v447, 647-648, June 2007.
Evidence in support of the climate change-Atlantic hurricane hypothesis, Geophysical Research Letters, v33, L16705, doi:10.1029/2006GL026869, August 2006.
Climatology models for extreme hurricane winds near the United States, Journal of Climate, v19, 3220-3236, July 2006.
High frequency variability in hurricane power dissipation and its relationship to global temperature, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, v87, 763-768, June 2006.
Forecasting U.S. hurricanes 6 months in advance, Geophysical Research Letters, v33, L10704, doi:10.1029/2006GL025693, June 2006.
Prediction models for annual U.S. hurricane counts, Journal of Climate, v19, 2935-2952, June 2006.
Estimated return periods for Hurricane Katrina, Geophysical Research Letters, v33, L08704, doi:10.1029/2005GL025452, April 2006.
Comparison of hindcasts anticipating the 2004 Florida hurricane season, Weather & Forecasting, v21, 182-192, April 2006.
Hurricane landfall probability and climate, in Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Future, Columbia University Press, 333-353, 2004.
A hierarchical Bayesian approach to seasonal hurricane modeling, Journal of Climate, v17, 2813-2827, July 2004.
Detecting shifts in hurricane rates using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach, Journal of Climate, v17, 2652-2666, July 2004.
Plotting early nineteenth-century hurricane information, EOS Transactions, v85, May 2004.
Examining the ENSO-typhoon hypothesis, Climate Research, v25, 43-54, October 2003.
Tracking hurricanes, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, v84, 353-356, March 2003.
Seasonal space-time models for climate systems, Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, v6, 111-133, 2003.
A space-time model for seasonal hurricane prediction, International Journal of Climatology, v22, 451-465, March 2002.
Hurricane intensity changes associated with geomagnetic variation, Atmospheric Science Letters, v2, 86-93, June 2001.
Trends in U.S. tropical cyclone mortality during the past century, The Florida Geographer, v32, 28-37, 2001.
Bayesian analysis of U.S. hurricane climate, Journal of Climate, v14, 4341-4350, December 2001.
Secular changes to the ENSO-U.S. hurricane relationship, Geophysical Research Letters, v28, 4123-4126, November 2001.
A dynamic probability model of hurricane winds in coastal counties of the United States, Journal of Applied Meteorology, v40, 853-863, May 2001.
Spatial variations in major U.S. hurricane activity: Statistics and a physical mechanism, Journal of Climate, v13, 2293-2305, July 2000.
Changes in the rates of North Atlantic major hurricane activity during the 20th century, Geophysical Research Letters, v27, 1743-1746, June 2000.
Global tropical cyclone activity: A link to the North Atlantic oscillation, Geophysical Research Letters, v27, 129-132, January 2000.
Fluctuations in North Atlantic hurricane frequency, Journal of Climate, v12, 427-437, February 1999.
Multi-year prediction model of North Atlantic hurricane activity, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, v68, 43-51, 1998.
The 1995 and 1996 North Atlantic hurricane seasons: A return of the tropical-only hurricane, Journal of Climate, v11, 2062-2069, August 1998.
Seasonal prediction models for North Atlantic basin hurricane location, Monthly Weather Review, v125, 1780-1791, August 1997.
Other Research Papers
Variations in typhoon landfalls over China, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, v23, 665-677, 2006.
Unfolding the relation between global temperature and ENSO, Geophysical Research Letters, doi: 10.1029/2005GL022875, 2005.
On the relation between ENSO and global climate change, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, v84, 229-242, 2003.
A quantitative precipitation forecast experiment for Puerto Rico, Journal of Hydrology, v239, 162-178, 2000.
A statistical method for forecasting rainfall over Puerto Rico, Weather and Forecasting, v12, 515-525, 1997.
Global temperature as a regulator of climate predictability, Physica D, v108, 191-196, 1997.
Tallahassee, Florida, minimum temperature anomaly: Description and speculations, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, v77, 721-728, 1996.
Objective classification of Atlantic basin hurricanes, Journal of Climate, v9, 2880-2889, 1996.
Wavelet analysis of DNA sequences, Physical Review E, v53, 1828-1834, 1996.
Improving seasonal hurricane predictions for the Atlantic basin, Weather and Forecasting, v10, 425--432, 1995.
Assessing forecast skill through cross validation, Weather and Forecasting, v9, 619-624, 1994.
An investigation on the ability of nonlinear methods to infer dynamics from observations, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, v75, 1623-1633, 1994.
Historical developments leading to forecasts of annual Atlantic tropical-cyclone activity, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, v75, 1611-1621, 1994.
Improving extended-range seasonal predictions of intense Atlantic hurricane activity, Weather and Forecasting, v8, 345-351, 1993.
Estimating the dimensions of weather and climate attractors: Important issues about the procedure and interpretation, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, v50, 2549-2555, 1993.
Complexity and predictability of hourly precipitation, Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, v50, 400-405, 1993.
Nonlinear prediction, chaos and noise, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, v73, 49-60, 1992.
Comments on "Dimension analysis of climatic data", Journal of Climate, v3, 1502-1505, 1990.
Chaos, strange attractors and the weather, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, v70, 16-23, 1989.]
Synoptic weather patterns associated with the Milwaukee, Wisconsin flash flood of 6 August 1986, Weather and Forecasting, v4, 537-554, 1989.
A shore-parallel cloud band over Lake Michigan, Monthly Weather Review, v117, 2822-2823, 1989.
On the dynamics of a forced reaction-diffusion model for biological pattern formation, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, USA, v86, 4938-4942, 1989.