\relax 
\citation{Albert2009}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {chapter}{\numberline {4}Bayesian Statistics}{82}}
\@writefile{lof}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\@writefile{lot}{\addvspace {10\p@ }}
\newlabel{chap:bayesianstatistics}{{4}{82}}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {4.1}Learning About the Proportion of Landfalls}{82}}
\newlabel{sec:learningaboutproportions}{{4.1}{82}}
\citation{Albert2011}
\newlabel{eq:beta}{{4.1}{83}}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {4.1}{\ignorespaces Beta density describing hurricane landfall proportion.}}{84}}
\newlabel{fig:beta:prior}{{4.1}{84}}
\newlabel{eq:binomlike}{{4.2}{85}}
\newlabel{eq:Bayesrule}{{4.3}{85}}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {4.2}{\ignorespaces Densities describing hurricane landfall proportion.}}{86}}
\newlabel{fig:prior:like:post}{{4.2}{86}}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {4.2}Inference}{87}}
\newlabel{sec:inference}{{4.2}{87}}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {4.3}Credible Interval}{88}}
\newlabel{eq:prop:95ci}{{4.4}{88}}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {4.4}Predictive Density}{89}}
\newlabel{eq:preddensity}{{4.5}{89}}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {4.3}{\ignorespaces Predictive probabilities for the number of land falling hurricanes.}}{90}}
\newlabel{fig:predictedlandfallprobs}{{4.3}{90}}
\citation{Winkler2003}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {4.5}Is Bayes Rule Needed?}{91}}
\citation{Jackman2009}
\citation{Albert2009}
\citation{HodgesEtAl2012}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {4.6}Bayesian Computation}{92}}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.6.1}Time-to-Acceptance}{93}}
\newlabel{sec:tta}{{4.6.1}{93}}
\citation{Albert2009}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {4.4}{\ignorespaces AMS journals publishing articles with `hurricane' in the title.}}{94}}
\newlabel{fig:barplotjournals}{{4.4}{94}}
\newlabel{eq:gammaposterior}{{4.7}{94}}
\newlabel{eq:gammasampling}{{4.8}{95}}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {4.5}{\ignorespaces Posterior density of the gamma parameters for a model describing time-to-acceptance.}}{96}}
\newlabel{fig:jointposterior}{{4.5}{96}}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {4.6}{\ignorespaces Probability of paper acceptance as a function of submit date.}}{97}}
\newlabel{fig:probvsdate}{{4.6}{97}}
\citation{Jackman2009}
\citation{LunnEtAl2000}
\citation{Plummer2011}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.6.2}Markov chain Monte Carlo approach}{98}}
\newlabel{sec:mcmc}{{4.6.2}{98}}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.6.3}JAGS}{98}}
\newlabel{sec:jags}{{4.6.3}{98}}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {4.7}{\ignorespaces Directed acyclic graph of the landfall proportions model.}}{100}}
\newlabel{fig:DAG}{{4.7}{100}}
\@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {4.6.4}WinBUGS}{102}}
\newlabel{sec:winbugs}{{4.6.4}{102}}
\@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {4.8}{\ignorespaces Posterior samples of time to acceptance. (a) Trace plot and (b) histogram.}}{104}}
\newlabel{fig:UScounts}{{4.8}{104}}
\citation{PlummerEtAl2010}
\@setckpt{Chap04/Chapter04}{
\setcounter{page}{106}
\setcounter{equation}{9}
\setcounter{enumi}{0}
\setcounter{enumii}{0}
\setcounter{enumiii}{0}
\setcounter{enumiv}{0}
\setcounter{footnote}{2}
\setcounter{mpfootnote}{0}
\setcounter{part}{1}
\setcounter{chapter}{4}
\setcounter{section}{6}
\setcounter{subsection}{4}
\setcounter{subsubsection}{0}
\setcounter{paragraph}{0}
\setcounter{subparagraph}{0}
\setcounter{figure}{8}
\setcounter{table}{0}
\setcounter{LT@tables}{0}
\setcounter{LT@chunks}{0}
\setcounter{FancyVerbLine}{2}
\setcounter{NAT@ctr}{0}
\setcounter{density}{-180}
}