Week Six: Population Structure
Samuel Preston. 1984. Diverging paths for America's dependents.
- If we think like Malthus, how would we expect population aging (more elders, fewer children) to affect the well-being of children? What does Preston find about actual trends?
- If we think like Malthus, how would we expect population aging (more elders, fewer children) to affect the well-being of older people? What does Preston find about actual trends?
- How does Preston explain the trends he finds for well-being of children and the elderly--is it the result of competition in a "zero-sum" game?
Ansley Coale. 1986. Demographic effects of below-replacement fertility and their social implications.
- If we ignore net migration, what level of the TFR would lead to a stable U.S. population size, and when did Coale say this size would be reached? (Coale's Figure 1)
- Even with migration, what shares of the population would be under 20 and over 65 by 2070 with replacement fertility? With a TFR of 1.6 children per woman? (Coale's Table 2)
- What is the difference between collateral and ancestral relatives, and what does Coale say happens to the prevalance of each type of relatives in low-fertility societies?
- Summarize Myrdal's description of how age pyramids used to be suited to career ladders in working life. What happens to this demographic/career match when birth rates stay low, and why?